Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 041124
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
525 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ENTERING NORTHWEST MN...AND THIS
WILL TRACK TOWARD THE U.P. BY AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW BANDS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ALREADY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO HELP SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH PER CURRENT TRENDS. COULD
BE A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. ANY
LINGERING SNOW IN WI WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. LIGHT WINDS
AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHEAST IA
AND SOUTHWEST WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES IN ALREADY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING THIS IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
WE PREVIOUSLY WERE THINKING...SO SPED UP THE ONSET ABOUT 6 HOURS.
THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE THURSDAY EVENT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...
BUT AMPLE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN WI.
AGAIN...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY AND THEN A
LARGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. THIS ONE IS
QUITE STRONG AND BRINGS ALONG SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PASS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GENERATE SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. THUS THERE COULD BE
A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES AS IT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...AS SOME ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND SNOW
IS A GOOD BET.

THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AFTER THIS SUNDAY SYSTEM...WITH LARGE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE. THE SUNDAY SYSTEM ASSISTS SEVERAL OTHER
SHORT WAVES IN CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE ARCTIC EXPRESS TO
ALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO POUR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW ZERO LOW READINGS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR WED/THU/FRI NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THIN BAND OF MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FORCING WILL
DIMINISH...BUT RADAR STILL POINTS TO A FEW AREAS OF -SN...WITH SFC
OBS ALSO SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BETTER
CHANCE FOR BOTH AT KRST.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SLIDING MVFR CIGS AND SOME -SN ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. HOW IMPACTFUL THE SNOW WILL BE IN TERMS OF VSBYS IS
UNCERTAIN...AND WILL LEAVE AT P6SM FOR NOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR AND WILL LET RADAR TRENDS DICTATE THE NEED FOR
ANY UPDATES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF ITS
PASSAGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RIECK


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