Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 290444
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PINWHEELING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MN BORDER. CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE/SHOWERS
BEING CIRCULATED CYCLONICALLY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL WI INTO
SOUTHERN MN. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE HOLDING
TEMPERATURES BACK ALMOST 20 DEGREES UNDER THE DAILY NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE FILLING. AS SUCH...EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WRAP UP/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRYING NORTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ON LOW CLOUD COVER...BUT LOOKS
LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO TOTALLY SCATTER OUT WITH ANY CHANCE
OF CLEARING OVER NORTHERN WI CLOSER TO THE DRY HUDSON BAY SOURCE.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH OR SO AND AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FOG/FROST DEVELOPMENT BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THOUGH WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SKIES LOOKING TO BE MORE BROKEN IN NATURE.
CLOUDS/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 50S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERS THE PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ROTATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

WILL BE WATCHING THE SURFACE LOW PINWHEEL EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF US
SATURDAY WHILE THE MID-LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
AFFECT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HAVE ON NORTHWARD PUSH OF SHOWERS
INTO OUR AREA. NOT BUYING TOTALLY DRY FORECAST AS THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST GIVING FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW. TOOK MORE OF A BLEND OF THE
NAM/ECMWF...BRINGING LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH //NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI// BY LATE MORNING AND CATEGORICAL SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TIGHT CUT-OFF POP GRADIENT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SEEN MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-90 SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW DIP UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. BUFKIT STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING HIGH
CLOUD/CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATING EAST
JUST SOUTH OF US. OTHERWISE...NOT THAT BAD OF A DAY SHAPING UP AS
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LOOKS QUITE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL
ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

SHOWER CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

GFS/ECMWF 180 OUT FROM EACH OTHER FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EC SHOWING
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS CARVES OUT
A CHILLY TROUGH. WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW WHICH YIELDS
DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS OVER SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THIS CIRCULATION
STILL IN THE AREA...AREAS OF -RA/-DZ AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
REMAINED OVER SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST MORE QUICKLY THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE NORTHERLY SFC-850MB FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PULL DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER TONIGHT AND FOR FRI. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AFTER
09Z...WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRI. CLOUDS A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR FRI. ANY CIGS FRI SHOULD BE 3500-4500 FT BUT QUESTION IS
WILL THIS DECK BECOME SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO NOSE SOUTH INTO MN/WI. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
LINGERING CLOUD LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR
850MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE INVERSION. LEFT CLOUDS
DECKS THRU FRI AFTERNOON AS BKN...BECOMING SCT EARLY FRI EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE RISING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CRESTS WITHIN
2-5 FEET OF FLOOD STAGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
THOSE WITH INTERESTS OR CONCERNS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS


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