Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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453
FXUS63 KARX 040448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST BOTH SITES PUSHING ALL THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SKIES ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL START BOTH SITES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
MIXED LAYER. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND KLSE COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR
A WHILE FROM THIS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



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