Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 161952
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
252 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

All eyes on thunderstorm chances/severe potential tonight through
Wednesday. Some scattered thunderstorms will continue late this
afternoon and evening generally across the northwest third of the
forecast area where the CAP is weaker within plume of 1000 to 2500
J/kg of MLCAPE. While some large hail, damaging winds, and
locally heavy rainfall are possible, most of these storms should
be sub-severe.

Of greater concern will be late this evening and overnight as a
leading short-wave lifts northeastward across central MN into
northwest WI. Models in reasonable agreement showing a nocturnal
convective complex develop with this wave, impacting northeast IA,
southeast MN, and north central WI. When combined with strong
mid-level moisture advection along a strengthening low-level jet
and PWATs near 1.5 inches (2-3 standard deviations above normal),
expect periods of heavy rain. Flooding, including river flooding
and flash flooding are possible, especially for those areas across
southeast MN that received 2-5 inches of rain last night. As a
result, will issue a Flash Flood Watch for southeast MN and
Buffalo/Trempealeau Counties in WI from 02-12Z late this evening
and overnight where 1-3 inches (locally more) of rain are
possible. See hydrology discussion below for additional details.
Outside of the heavy rain threat, instability/shear profiles still
support large hail and damaging winds as well.

For Wednesday, the cut-off closed low across AZ will eject
northeastward and near the NE/SD/IA border by 00Z Thursday. Strong
deep layer shear will accompany this wave, although instability is
still in question as the warm sector looks quite messy with the
potential for substantial cloud cloud. If higher instability can
be realized, strong to severe storms are once again possible for
much of the area. With no real change in air mass, additional
heavy rainfall is also possible, but will address that issue and
possible headlines after tonight`s convection.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Thursday still looking mostly dry with short-wave ridging aloft.
That said, it will be cloudy and cool with a brisk north-northwest
wind. Temperatures only expected to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s
for most places. Shower chances return Friday as a weak short-wave
attempts to undercut the ridge, but with instability well south of
the area, not expecting any thunder at this time. Unseasonably
cool, cloudy conditions will continue with highs in the 50s.

Friday night through Tuesday, the main concern will be a strong
upper-level low moving through the Northern Plains region. There
are only minor differences on the placement of the attendant
surface low between the GFS and ECMWF, and both bring the center
of the surface low generally over our area. This should bring a
prolonged period of rain showers and below normal temperatures to
our area this weekend. The bulk of the rain looks to fall on
Saturday, with the system departing by late Sunday. We will remain
in an active pattern into next week, with another shortwave
swinging down from Canada late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

A warm front was currently pushing slowly northward through the
area with a few storms mainly north of I-90. Atmosphere over
KRST/KLSE looks like it will be capped off to prevent any further
shra/ts activity though this afternoon with VFR conditions
prevailing. In addition, winds will be a bit breezy from the south
with the passage of the warm front at KRST/KLSE sites. Plan on
more shra/ts moving in this evening as another trough of low
pressure ejects northeast out of the Central Plains. Mainly VFR
conditions expected overnight with this scattered shra/ts
activity, slipping into MVFR from 12Z to 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

A swath of 2-5 inches of rain fell last night across portions of
southeast MN from north of Dodge Center and Rochester through much
of Winona County and into northern Houston County. Smaller rivers
and streams responded rapidly to this rainfall with some localized
flooding. An additional 1-3 inches (possibly more) are possible
late this evening and overnight as another convective complex
moves across the region. With wet soils and elevated water levels
from last night, any additional rainfall may result in flash
flooding and/or river flooding. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch
is in effect tonight for southeast MN into portions of north-
central WI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for WIZ032-033.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers/Hollan
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...Rogers



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