Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 282320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Satellite Water Vapor Imagery showing closed low vicinity of KFSD
with a trough extending southeast through central IA. Ascent/lift
ahead of this low combined with fairly humid airmass was leading to
scattered shower/thunderstorms across the area per latest radar
trends. So far...storms are behaving...but next couple of hours in
added heating and 0-1KM ML MUCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500J/KG
range may lead to a few severe storms...especially along/east of the
Mississippi River where better 0-3KM bulk shear in the 20-30KT range
will exist. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threat...
but cannot rule out an isolated weaker tornado or two as well. As a
result...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 9 PM this
evening for most of the forecast area except for Clark and Taylor

Look for the severe threat to subside later this evening as surface
heating wanes and main forcing shifts east. Otherwise...will likely
continue to see isolated showers through the overnight hours with
mid-level trough moving overhead.

Trough lingers overhead Sunday for more showers and late
morning/afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Look for the trough to
push east of the area Sunday night with weak ridging building in for
clearing skies.

Temperature-wise...plan on lows tonight and Sunday night in the
middle 50s/lower 60s and highs Sunday in the middle/upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Memorial Day through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Will see a chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the
Mississippi River on Memorial Day in warm air advection/isentropic
lift ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.

Shower/thunderstorms become likely mainly in the Tuesday/Tuesday
night period as the area of low pressure and cold front push into
the area from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley region.

Looks like a bit of a cool down for latter next week into the
weekend with general troughing across the region. There will also be
a few showers chances as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Lightning is on the wane, so expect a couple more hours of
scattered showers before drying out for the rest of the period at
KRST/KLSE. Main challenge thereafter will be timing/coverage of
lower ceilings/visibility toward sunrise Sunday morning. Some
forecast guidance is pessimistic with IFR ceilings, but confidence
of occurrence is low. Will drop to MVFR at both TAF sites
beginning at 29.08Z for KRST and 29.10Z for KLSE with four hour
TEMPO groups dropping to IFR at KRST and low MVFR at KLSE.
Conditions should return to VFR late Sunday morning. Expect
westerly winds at KRST through the period, gusting into the low 20
kt range Sunday afternoon. At KLSE, light southerly winds
overnight will shift to the west-southwest on Sunday and gust to
around 20 kts.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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