Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 291907
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...INTO EASTERN NEB. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...FOCUS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TIED MORE TOWARD POST FRONTAL/MID-LEVEL TROUGH PV-
ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WI/SOUTHERN MN/EASTERN SD. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...EXITING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAP MODEL SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/700-300MB PV-ADVECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING 700-500MB LAPSE RATES GOING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN
RATES WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE.

AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR DRYING/COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAND/BOG COUNTRY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THAT AREA...AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD/THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
70-75 DEGREE RANGE...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY SEE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAPE SLOWLY
INCREASES. NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. FOR
KRST...THE 29.15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL ALMOST
00Z WHILE THE 29.12Z HI-RES ARW IS A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER. GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO INCREASE JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST...WILL LEAD TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER ARW AND SHOW A CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 24Z. AS
THE ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS EAST...THE STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
KLSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
STORMS WILL END WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH...CEILINGS SHOULD THEN COME DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT KRST TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04



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