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000
AXNT20 KNHC 131009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW
Atlantic will force gale-force winds to pulse off the Colombia
offshore waters with rough seas. Seas will peak around 13 ft late
night into early morning hours. Fresh to strong easterly winds
can also be expected across the south- central Caribbean for the
next several days.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1018 mb low pressure system is located NE
of the waters near 34N32W. Strong winds are occurring with this
low along with seas to 12 ft. Gale force winds are expected to
move into waters south of 31N this afternoon through tonight.
Strong winds will continue through Sun night as the low slowly
meanders eastward away from the area. Seas are expected to peak
around 18 ft tonight into Sun. Conditions will improve by Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the above GALE WARNING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough stretches from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 03S25W. The ITCZ extends from 03S25W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
present south of 03N between 18W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of 24N and east of
94W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas are found in the western Gulf,
west of 94W.

For the forecast, high pressure continues to build across the
basin. Strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan in the
evenings through the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh winds with slight to moderate seas can be expected through
the weekend and into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

Pockets of low-level moisture sustain isolated showers in the
Gulf of Honduras, south of Cuba and Hispaniola and the NE
Caribbean waters. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to
strong easterly trade winds are prevalent in the eastern and
central Caribbean. Seas in the south- central Caribbean range 8 to
13 ft. Elsewhere, sas range 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, gale-force winds will pulse off the northern
coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. Rough seas will occur
around the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the
weekend and into early next week. Locally strong winds are likely
within the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in
the Lee of Cuba. Similar winds may develop near the Gulf of
Honduras by mid- week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning in the Atlantic High Seas.

A cold front extends from 31N70W to central Cuba. A line of
showers and thunderstorms are occurring east of the front from 28N
between 66W and 71W. Fresh to strong westerly winds are found
between the cold front to the waters off NE Florida and north of
28N. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
and seas of 6-9 ft are present between the cold front to 62W and
north of 28N.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N31W to 16N57W and
a few showers are noted near the boundary. The pressure gradient
between a 1039 mb high pressure system positioned in the far
north Atlantic and lower pressures associated with the
aforementioned boundary support fresh to strong N-NE winds north
of the surface trough and east of 65W. Seas in the area described
are 8-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N40W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft
are noted in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic west of 40W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
31N64W to eastern Cuba by this evening, then stall from 31N61W to
eastern Cuba early Sun and gradually dissipate. Strong winds
occurring on either side of the front N of 29N will diminish
tonight. Rough seas will accompany these winds and subside by Sun
morning. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will linger through
the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the wake of
the front through early next week with more tranquil marine
conditions expected.

$$
AReinhart