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000
FNUS73 KBIS 201255
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for CR Heart...TNC
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
755 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies, dry conditions, and a steady northwest wind of 10 to 15 mph
can be expected across the burn site today. Afternoon humidity values will
lower into the mid to upper 20s. Tonight, clear skies continue with humidity
recovery near 60 percent. A steady west wind near 10 mph will also be found
through the night. Warmer temperatures and mainly clear skies will then be
found for Sunday. These warmer temperatures will see afternoon humidity values
drop into the low to mid 20s. Steady west wind in the morning will become south
southwest in the afternoon at 10 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (95100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  23  13  5   5   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............39  40  43  45  46  47
RH..............40  36  30  28  27  27
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  14  14  12
20 FT wind gust.17  17  18  17  17  18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.5 5.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  17  18  18  20  20
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..51  60  74  81  94  95

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 25.
Max humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (93900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   8   8   16  15  7   3   3   3   2   3   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............47  46  44  38  36  35  33  32  31  30  29  28
RH..............27  28  33  42  45  47  49  51  53  55  58  58
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..14  12  9   8   7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.18  17  14  12  11  11  11  11  12  12  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 5.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.20  18  14  13  13  12  13  13  13  12  10  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..94  80  8   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south southwest
                    10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 15
                    to 20 mph with a few higher gusts in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (84100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         2         5         7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............28        35        50        58
RH..............58        49        28        22
20 FT wind......W 6G9     W 6G9     SW 7G10   S 10G15
Mix hgt (ft)....400       900       3500      4700
Transport wind..W 10      W 9       SW 13     S 18
Haines index....4         4         3         4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3         7         38        75

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Chris Gordon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411490.0/BIS
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL chris_gordon@tnc.org