Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
282
FNUS73 KBIS 021106
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Hb-29/30/31...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
606 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Partly cloudy skies at the time of ignition will increase through
the morning as rain showers becoming more likely through the
afternoon and into the evening, possibly with some isolated
thunderstorms. Conditions then dry out overnight, before another
round of rain becomes likely Friday morning through Friday
evening. Minimum relative humidities at the ignition site will be
in the lower 50s this afternoon, increasing to the mid 70s on
Friday. Winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 miles per hour at
the time of ignition, becoming west-northwesterly through the
evening and overnight, then strengthening to 10 to 15 miles per
hour through the day on Friday. Where isolated thunderstorms do
develop this afternoon and evening, gusty and erratic winds are
expected.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................9 percent increasing to 33 percent late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (28400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (49600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44 50 58 65 75 65 60
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 30 30
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 20 30 50
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2
Temp............50 52 53 53 54 53 52
RH..............63 59 57 57 54 57 61
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE E
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 7 6 8 9
20 FT wind gust.7 8 9 10 10 11 12
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.1 6.8 5.3
Transp wind dir.S S SE S S S SE
Transp wind spd.7 7 8 8 8 8 9
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..28 36 46 48 50 48 42
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely with isolated
thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................33 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 to 10 mph shifting to the north
early in the evening, then shifting to the west-northwest
in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 14 mph shifting to the west 7 to 12
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........66 72 76 71 59 60 57 57 62 69 72 75
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............30 30 30 30 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).60 50 40 40 30 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............51 49 47 44 42 40 40 39 39 38 38 38
RH..............63 68 74 86 96 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..W N N N W W W W W NW NW W
20 FT wind spd..10 9 9 6 5 5 6 8 8 8 9 9
20 FT wind gust.12 14 12 9 9 8 9 12 12 12 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE E E E W W W W W NW W W
Transp wind spd.9 13 14 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 12
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..35 31 23 6 3 5 5 4 4 5 9 8
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the
morning, becoming likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 19 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph increasing to around 22
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (71800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........70 82 86 78
Weather cov.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 10 10 20
Chc of pcpn (%).20 50 50 70
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............38 40 44 46
RH..............100 100 86 78
20 FT wind......NW 10G14 W 11G17 NW 15G20 NW 15G20
Mix hgt (ft)....700 1700 2900 3600
Transport wind..NW 12 W 14 NW 18 W 22
Haines index....3 3 3 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..7 20 46 67
$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Calvin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412977.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov