633
FXUS64 KBRO 031929
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
229 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The combination of moist, low-level air, daytime heating, and mid to
upper level energy could still support some convection to the west
over neighboring Mexico late this afternoon through evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could potentially
drift into Zapata, and possibly Starr and Jim Hogg counties later
this afternoon and evening. SPC has placed the aforementioned areas
in a marginal severe thunderstorm outlook area, with the remainder
of the CWA in a general thunderstorm outlook area. The main threats
would be large hail and strong to severe wind gusts.

Otherwise, increasing low level moisture and light winds tonight may
support patchy light fog, mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and
near/over marine areas. With a weak cold front staying north of the
area tomorrow, the CWA is not in a thunderstorm outlook area for day
2.

Additionally, above normal temperatures (a few degrees above
average) will continue through the short-term with highs generally
ranging from the lower to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the
coast, Saturday. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows
mainly in the mid 70s. Southeast winds will remain moderate to
breezy.

Moderate seas will sustain a moderate risk of rip currents at the
local beaches through Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The main event for the long term forecast period continues to be the
above normal temperatures and the potential for some Heat Advisories
to be issued next week. With the continued surface flow of southerly
winds bring in more warm air to the region temperatures are expected
to continue to rise. With the wind possibly having a southwesterly
component to it as well during the period, that would allow for some
dry, but even warmer air to move into the region. With the expected
cloud coverage looking rather sparse as well during the upcoming
work week, the incoming solar radiation will allow for even more
heating during the day. While borderline for Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday seem more likely days that will require Heat Advisories
issued due the combination of the hot temperatures and very humid
environment. High temperatures are expected to be in the triple
digits for most of the area, with areas along the coast in the lower
90s.

With an almost consistent zonal flow pattern aloft and a lack of any
real forcing in the atmosphere, the long term forecast period is
expected to be rain free. With that, there is not much expected to
be in the form of relief from the heat expect maybe a bit of a
breezy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

TAF conditions are VFR at the sites as low clouds have scattered
out. Still have ceilings above 3 kft, however. High pressure
controls the Gulf, with lower pressure to the west, sustaining the
seasonal moderate southeast winds across the region. A few storms
could be possible upstream toward Laredo this evening, but the
lower and even mid RGV, including the TAF sites, should avoid
convection. A familiar pattern will occur this evening as ceilings
lower to MVFR overnight through Saturday morning. Southeast winds
will decrease to light overnight, strengthening to moderate and
breezy on Saturday. Light, patchy fog could develop at the TAF
sites overnight, but visibility limitations should be no worse
than MVFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...Moderate to fresh southeast winds
and moderate to sometimes higher seas will prevail along the lower
Texas Coast. Small craft should exercise caution conditions may
occur at times.

Sunday through Next Friday..Generally light to moderate winds and
moderate seas will be in play through next Friday. This will lead to
extended periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution as winds increase
with the tight pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast. While
rougher seas are also possible around Monday, requiring a low-end
Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  89  76  89 /  10   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               74  91  75  91 /  10   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 77  93  77  92 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  93  76  93 /  20   0  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  81  77  82 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  86  75  88 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...54-BHM