673
FXUS64 KBRO 011718
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1218 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A somewhat active weather pattern is expected during this portion
of total forecast. A series of 500 mb disturbances will pass over
the Lone Star State in a west- southwest to east-northeast flow.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today
and Thursday, primarily over the northern ranchlands. Indeed, for
this time period, the Storm Prediction Center tends to keep the
northern half of the BRO CWFA in a general risk of thunderstorms.

Additionally, slightly above normal to above normal daytime high and
overnight low temperatures will occur, thankfully tempered by mostly
cloudy skies. And although breezy to windy conditions are likely
today, the strength of the wind will be below established WIND
ADVISORY criteria.

Finally, elevated seas will result in a MODERATE RIP currents at the
local beaches today through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A nearly zonal flow aloft with a series of mid-level shortwaves will
prevail through the first half of the weekend. This pattern will
continue to support warm, humid, and generally rain-free conditions.
However, convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain
of Mexico Friday afternoon/evening and again Saturday
afternoon/evening leading to low end rain chances, mainly across
portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures Thursday night
through Sunday will be above normal with overnight lows in the mid
to upper 70s and highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s,
except for the lower 80s near the coast.

Late in the weekend into early next week, the 500mb sub-tropical
ridge will build north into Deep South Texas leading to hot and
humid conditions across the region. Highs on Monday will range from
the lower 90s to around 100 degrees, except for the 80s at the
beaches, across the CWA. Heat indices of 100 to 106 degrees are
expected Monday afternoon. Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day
with highs in the low to mid 90s to lower 100s. Heat indices between
100 to 109 degrees will be possible Tuesday afternoon. A Heat
Advisory may be needed for portions of the Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Through 18z Thursday....VFR to MVFR conditions were taking place at
the terminals as of this update under a SCT-OVC deck of cumulus
clouds with ceilings ranging from 2,000-2,500 feet AGL and
unrestricted visibilities. Latest GOES-16 visible satellite loop
depicts cloud coverage beginning to break up some over the local
forecast area. Breezy winds out of the southeast should help to
improve cloud coverage and ceilings some this afternoon. That said,
the expectation is for ceilings to return, albeit for a brief
period, to VFR levels this afternoon.

Later this evening, decreasing mixing heights coupled with copious
amounts of low level moisture with continued onshore flow should
allow for marine influences to increase once again in the form of
increased cloud coverage and a return of MVFR ceilings. Low MVFR to
IFR ceilings are possible tonight. During the day on Thursday,
ceilings are expected to improve/rise back into mainly MVFR levels.

Southeast winds will continue 10-20 kts with gusts at times up to 30
kts or so through the 18z TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today through Thursday: An enhanced pressure gradient will exist
along the Lower Texas Coast during the period courtesy of the
typical high pressure and low pressure interaction. Moderate seas
and breezy winds are anticipated, and while Small Craft Advisory
is not anticipated to be needed, Small Craft Exercise Caution is
likely for portions or all of the lower Texas coastal waters
during the period.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Moderate winds and seas are
expected along the Lower Texas Coast through early next week. Wave
heights are expected to range between 4 to 6 feet. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions are possible at times, especially
across the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  89  77  90 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               75  92  74  92 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  94  77  94 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  96  75  95 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  82  76  81 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     75  88  75  88 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma