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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190248
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1048 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will quickly pass across our region tonight, with
fair weather. A cold front will move east across the area
Friday, bringing another round of gusty showers to the region.
There will be one more round of scattered showers Saturday
afternoon, then dry weather will return for Sunday. The weekend
will be quite cool with a stretch of below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
A mid level trough and its associated moisture is now nearing
New England this late evening. An area of lingering drizzle east
of Lake Ontario will fade through the mid-overnight
hours...though a deck of low stratus will likely remain through
the night.

Weak surface high pressure will drift east across the area this
evening before reaching New England overnight. This will
provide a brief period of dry weather tonight, with partial
clearing this evening before clouds increase again from west to
east overnight ahead of the next system. Lows tonight will be in
the mid 40s in most areas. These lows will occur around
midnight, with rising temperatures towards Friday morning as
southerly flow increases ahead of the next system.

Friday, another sharp mid level trough and cold front will cross the
eastern Great Lakes. A brief period of ascent and low level
convergence associated with this feature will support a band of
showers arriving in Western NY during the morning, then spreading
east to the eastern Lake Ontario region by afternoon. The main band
of showers will be narrow and brief, although there may be a few
more scattered showers popping up both in front of, and behind the
main band of rain. Instability is minimal, but a fairly strong wind
field aloft may allow a few of the showers to produce gusty winds
even without thunder.

A 50+ knot low level jet will be found in the warm sector ahead of
the cold front. Ascent ahead of the mid level shortwave and poor low
level lapse rates will keep much of this aloft, but there may still
be gusts above 30 mph Friday. Temperatures will briefly rise into
the upper 50s to low 60s just ahead of the front, then begin to pull
back in the afternoon as cold advection increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Broad troughing overhead of the Great Lakes Friday will continue to
push into the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This longwave
trough will then remain overhead of the Great Lakes throughout the
weekend. Within this troughing pattern a shortwave trough will pass
through the longwave pattern supporting some active weather for the
start of the weekend.

A shortwave will begin to round the base of the trough Friday night,
supporting a the low pressure system over northern Ontario to
strengthen and gradually move into central Quebec by Friday night.
By Friday evening, rain showers will be exiting the North Country,
while a dry air mass fills with the approaching surface ridge.

The aforementioned potent shortwave will then round the base of mid-
level trough and cross the area Saturday. This will support a
secondary cold front to pass across the region starting Saturday
morning with an uptick in rain shower activity Saturday afternoon.

A broad area of surface high pressure will then push into western
and north central New York Saturday night through Sunday. While this
will promote mainly dry weather across the region, the longwave mid-
level trough axis overhead will promote cool temperatures. Highs
Sunday will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure ridged across the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes at
the start of this period will build eastward across our area
Monday...then will slide out across New England Monday night while a
low-amplitude mid-level trough and attendant surface low push across
the Upper MidWest and Upper Great Lakes. The high will provide us
with a plenty of sunshine and high temps recovering to near-normal
levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday...with fair dry weather
then continuing Monday night...albeit with a general increase in
cloud cover out ahead of the next system. With a milder airmass and
general south to southwest flow in place...lows Monday night will be
milder than those of the previous couple of nights...with mins
ranging from the mid 30s across interior sections of the Southern
Tier and North Country to the lower 40s across the lake plains.

While some differences persist in the details...the medium range
guidance remains in good general agreement on pushing the above
mentioned mid-level trough and associated surface reflection
eastward and across the Great Lakes and Northeast between Tuesday
and Wednesday. This system will bring our next general opportunity
for some showers...with a current model consensus suggesting the
peak of these coming between later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night...followed by sharply diminishing pcpn potential/coverage on
Wednesday as Canadian high pressure and notably colder/much drier
air builds in behind the departing surface low. While some guidance
continues to suggest the potential for the incoming colder airmass
to be cold enough to provoke a lake response Wednesday...the
combination of its rather dry nature and strong late April diurnal
influences will help to prevent the development of much more than
some cloud cover.

After that...the aforementioned surface high will continue to build
across our region Wednesday night and Thursday...with plentiful dry
air and subsidence attendant to the ridge providing us with dry and
uneventful weather through the end of the period.

With respect to temperatures Tuesday through Thursday...expect
slightly above normal temps (upper 50s-mid 60s) to prevail on the
warm side of the system on Tuesday. Following the passage of its
trailing cold front...temps will fall back to below average levels
in the 40s on Wednesday...with steady or falling temps possible
during the day depending upon the strength of the cold advection
regime behind the low. A chilly night with lows around the freezing
mark will then follow for Wednesday night...before sunshine and
airmass modification allow highs to recover a bit into the upper 40s
to mid 50s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of drizzle and light showers, coupled with MVFR ceiling
heights are found east of Lake Ontario at the beginning of the 00Z
TAF cycle. This activity, associated with a mid level trough, will
end through the evening, though MVFR ceiling heights will remain
common tonight. Back across WNY, drier air nosing northward will
scatter out much of the MVFR and low end stratus this evening. This
clearing will be brief as mid and high level clouds will increase
from the west later tonight, this ahead of the next storm system.

A mid level trough and associated cold front will move east across
the TAF region tomorrow. Expect a band of showers, with visibilities
lowering to MVFR. A few of the showers may contain brief periods of
moderate rain and associated brief/local visibility restriction of
IFR or lower. Behind the cold front, ceilings will deteriorate to
MVFR and local IFR along and just behind the cold front late morning
through the afternoon hours tomorrow.

Southerly winds will increase tomorrow morning, then veer to the
southwest to west tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front. Wind
gusts may reach 25-30 knots ahead and behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/VFR CIGS with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes Friday. South winds
will increase ahead of the front late tonight and Friday morning,
then veer to the southwest and west Friday afternoon behind the
front. This will likely produce a brief period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario midday Friday
through Friday evening.

Winds will remain elevated this weekend, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The strongest
winds will likely be in the afternoon and evening each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock