717
FXUS62 KCHS 031608
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1208 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast through
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This forecast is in good shape and captures trends well. No
major changes were made for the noon update.

Today: It will be another warm one across Southeast South
Carolina and Southeast Georgia. Morning GOES-E multi-layer water
vapor analysis and RAP initialization progs show subtropical
ridging remains in place across the Southeast U.S. this morning
with the ridge axis centered just offshore the South Carolina
and Georgia coast. This ridge will slowly propagate farther out
in the Atlantic today as weak impulses move across the Deep
South into the western Southeast States. Conditions will favor
the genesis of another progressive pure sea breeze with the
boundary propagating steadily inland through the local area
through the afternoon and evening. 850 hPa theta-e pooling
coupled across the far interior with some mixed-layer
instability (MLCAPE ~1200 J/kg) per modified RAP soundings at
KSBO and KMHP would suggest some convection that develops over
the CSRA and east-central Georgia could meander into roughly the
Reidsville-Millen corridor late this afternoon and evening.
Slight chance pops were maintained in this area to account for
this possibility.

The fog/stratus will lift into another healthy cumulus field
this afternoon which will scour out with the passage of the sea
breeze. Some high clouds will pass through aloft as well. The
net result will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for most
areas. Highs from the upper 80s/near 90 inland to the mid-upper
70s at the beaches look on track.

Tonight: A better looking short wave trough moves through the
Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf coast. This along with any
outflow boundaries from prior convection in and near the area,
will allow for isolated or scattered showers and a few t-storms
to occur. This is mainly far inland sections. There will be at
least some form of fog again after midnight given the southeast
and south flow in the boundary layer. However, there is likely
too much mid and high level clouds from the nearby convection
for dense fog to occur. We currently have mention of the
"patchy" fog qualifier, and we will monitor for any dense fog
potential. Low temperatures will be several degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid-level ridge axis will push off the Southeast coast Saturday
with passing waves of shortwave energy across the region through the
short term forecast period. High pressure will remain the primary
feature at the surface. Convection should be a bit more active over
the weekend and into Monday with the presence of deeper moisture as
PWATs increase to 1.5+ inches. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms
will be highest in the daytime when instability is maximized, but
with some upper forcing in play activity could linger into the
overnight period. The greatest chances are focused away from the
immediate coast owing to a progressive sea breeze.

High temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid 80s over the
weekend, warming into the mid to upper 80s Monday. Overnight lows
are only expected to drop to the mid to upper 60s, with locations
right along the beaches and Downtown Charleston near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will persist through the middle of next week.
Chances for showers/thunderstorms are limited Tuesday as weak
forcing/remnant shortwave energy passes offshore the Mid Atlantic
coast. Beyond Tuesday, rainfall chances are little to none as a
ridge rebuilds overhead. This will allow max temperatures to rise
into the low/mid 90s by mid next week, possibly approaching record
levels by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
04/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: No major issues are expected. VFR conditions
will prevail. There are signals that some shallow fog and/or
status could impact KSAV early Saturday morning, but with
increasing mid-level clouds expected, conditions do not look
overly favorable for fog/stratus development at this time. This
will be monitored carefully, however. Any risk for
isolated/scattered shower/tstm impacts look to hold to the west
for all terminals this afternoon into tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: High pressure from the Atlantic will be the main feature,
and even with sea breeze influences this afternoon, SE winds
will be no more than about 10 kt (10-15 kt with gusts 20 kt in
the Charleston Harbor). Seas will be only around 2 feet.

Tonight: Weak high pressure continues across the maritime
community. Once again the SE winds are no more than about 10
kt with seas just 2 feet.

Saturday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain
benign conditions over the local waters. Southerly winds in the
morning will back out of the southeast during the afternoon and
evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds
will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$