Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 150637
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
237 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop southward across the state this
morning and early afternoon. However, unseasonably mild
conditions will last into the weekend. Another cold front will
usher in a change in airmass for Sunday. But, the temperatures
will only gradually become colder each day through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Rain and thunderstorms have passed through much of the area and
are dropping into MD. There are still a few, isolated, showers N
of I-80, dropping southward as well. The winds have been erratic
as the main batch of showers and thunderstorms moved across the
srn tier with some gusts near 40-45 MPH. This cluster of
showers/storms have been weakening over the past 30-40 mins
with no ltg on the plots at 02Z. Expect further weakening on the
whole for the rest of the night. The cold front seems to be N of
BFD but perhaps through/S of ERI. The front should continue
dropping south this morning, reaching the office about sunrise,
and the MD border just after noon. The LLJet is very strong with
60+KT wrly winds only 2-3kft off the ground all over the area
right now, and stying that way thru noon in the S.

The high stability should continue to make it difficult for
gusts of that magnitude to reach the sfc. However, we`ve seen
meager showers make the 35+KT gusts already. Despite the passage
and added forcing/focus of the front, the meso models paint a
very sparsely covered radar scope for the morning over the
srn half of the CWA. Have kept some higher PoPs for now, seeing
how fast the showers/storms are moving and should be able to
spread the rain out well. Temps will stay mild for the Ides of
March, but not nearly as mild as the last few days, esp in the
N under CAA there. Maxes (near or even slightly under 50F)
occur early morning in the N, and may fall all day long. A non-
diurnal trend will occur in the central counties, too, where
maxes should be in the mid-day and waggle with a few degrees of
that value for the rest of the day. The S will have the most-
normal time of peak temp, but also may hit their max in the
early aftn and become steady until late aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Drying in the aftn and evening and a 7-10MPH wind thru the night
should keep too much fog from occurring tonight. But, some fog
in the valleys is possible, mainly in the central and south,
since a typical patch of broken low clouds due to CAA over the
Alleghenies should keep fog at bay there. Clearing in the SErn
half of the area will help take mins into the 30s everywhere.
Have nudged T`s down a bit from prev fcsts there.

Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. Temps
should get back into the 60-62F range in the SE, and 50s
elsewhere, but just barely for the nrn mtns. The WSW wind will
pick up in the aftn, esp in the NW half of the CWA. The front
should make at least a thin line of showers along it, and make
just a tenth or two of rain as it drops across the NW half Sat
night. The front won`t be carrying that much mstr with it, and
the showers will break up/end for the most part as it gets past
the spine of the Appalachians. The air will be 5-8F colder on
Sun than Sat - with maxes about normal in the NW, but still a
little milder than normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any
leftover showers go thru the SE and linger in the NW, you may
see a rainbow, but that`s a tough call to make this far away.
Might have to see the radar on Sun evening to give yourself the
best chance at finding the pot of gold. Of course, this
forecast is gold, but not quite bitcoin.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely
Sunday/Sun night. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks
a potent upper level shortwave and cold front through the region
Monday. A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the
passage of this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing,
steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are
evident in some models with the fropa, signaling a potential of
squalls.

Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear
likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest
flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and
moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the
upper trough begins to lift out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain continues to linger in western and southern PA as remnants
from the convection that occurred across Indiana and Ohio
earlier. A few rumbles of thunder are still possible with these
as weak elevated instability is present. These storms will
continue to push south east throughout the night.

Ceilings will likely lower to MVFR across most of the area as
the night progresses, with IFR ceilings seeming most likely at
BFD. The exception will be across the Lower Susquehanna Valley
where the HREF/SREF suggest only a 20% chance of MVFR ceilings
developing. Any heavier rain showers that occur will have the
potential to reduce visibilities. Outside of any convection,
LLWS will impact Central PA through the overnight hours as an
850mb LLJ passes overhead increasing winds above the surface.
The magnitude of shear could reach as high as 55kts in some
spots.

Showers will continue throughout the day Friday before
gradually dissipating in the late afternoon. As they decrease in
coverage, ceilings will improve to VFR for all areas except
across the northwest where ceilings may be stubborn to rise.

Outlook...

Sat...Breezy, MVFR cigs poss NW.

Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs NW half. Some snow could mix
in during the late afternoon across the northwest,

Mon...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front with rain
showers possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Tue...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19
at 11:06 PM EDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl


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