755
ACUS48 KWNS 050901
SWOD48
SPC AC 050900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...
The upper cyclone over the northern Plains should evolve into an
open wave as it moves slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. A belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely persist from parts of the southern/central Plains into the
mid MS Valley and OH Valley/Midwest. An embedded shortwave trough
should encourage the development of a weak surface low over the mid
MS Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. A warm front should extend
eastward from this low across the OH Valley, while a cold front is
forecast to extend southward from the low across the southern
Plains. Moderate to strong instability should develop from
north-central/northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and
parts of the OH/TN Valleys, as daytime heating acts on a rich/moist
low-level airmass. Strong deep-layer shear will act to organize
convection that can develop along both the warm and cold fronts
through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Supercells posing a threat for
all severe hazards appear possible, as well as clusters capable of
producing damaging winds. Given that convection may be ongoing
Wednesday morning across parts of these regions, confidence in a
corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include a
30% severe area at this time.

...Day 5/Thursday...
Differences in model guidance regarding the position and amplitude
of an upper trough across the Midwest/OH Valley become more
pronounced by Thursday. Still, some chance for organized severe
thunderstorms remains apparent from parts of the Mid-Atlantic
southwestward into portions of the Southeast, and perhaps TX too.
Confidence in the location of relevant surface boundaries and areas
of greater instability to their south remains low, owing to multiple
days of prior convection and various associated outflows. Trends in
model guidance will continue to be monitored for possible inclusion
of one or more 15% severe areas, pending better model agreement.

...Day 6/Friday...
Severe potential should become confined to parts of the Southeast on
Friday, as a cold front generally moves east-southeastward across
the eastern CONUS in tandem with an upper trough. Similar concerns
as Thursday exist regarding where better severe potential will
focus, with generally low predictability at this time.

...Day 7/Saturday and Day 8/Sunday...
Any lingering severe threat should be confined to parts of FL on
Saturday, along/south of a cold front. With limited low-level
convergence forecast, overall severe potential seems fairly low.
Minimal severe threat across the CONUS is currently evident for next
Sunday, as the cold front clears the East Coast.

..Gleason.. 05/05/2024