740
FXUS63 KDDC 090114
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
814 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Saturday.

- The next opportunity for needed rainfall is expected on
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Surface analysis at 8 pm showed a very dry boundary layer in
place across SW KS, with dewpoints in the 20s. Light N/NE winds
prevailed, in response to weak low pressure over the Texas
panhandle. Earlier midlevel wave clouds have dissipated, but
additional midlevel clouds will increase overnight through
Thursday morning. Despite the additional clouds, the very dry
air will assist radiational cooling, with all locations well
down into the 40s sunrise Thursday.

A mix of mid/high clouds and sunshine is expected Thursday, with
a gentle northerly pressure gradient supporting less wind than
Wednesday, averaging north at 10-20 mph. Models show little if
any thermal changes tomorrow, so expect Thursday`s temperatures
to mirror those observed Wednesday, mainly in the 70s.

No changes needed to the forecast or grids this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Dry conditions are expected throughout the short term period. Mid to
upper level clouds will develop across the southern half of the CWA
after midnight and may stick around throughout the morning hours
tomorrow. Skies then become mostly clear by tomorrow night. Winds
will generally be from a northerly direction throughout the
short term forecast. As for temperatures, low tonight will dip
into the 40s tonight and range from the upper 60s west to upper
70s east for highs tomorrow. Lows tomorrow night will dip back
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak
ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead
to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly
winds. An upper level low will spin above the four corners
region during this time frame then trek closer to the area this
weekend into the first part of next week. As this low gets
closer, weak disturbances may swing into the area bringing a
chance of precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an
increase in cloudiness. Temperatures throughout the long term
will generally be in the 70s Friday with upper 70s to low 80s
Saturday and Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the
first part of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s with
some 50s across the eastern half of the CWA this weekend into
the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 435 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with
VFR continuing, and variable amounts of mid and high clouds.
Winds will be relatively light, generally with a northerly
component.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner