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000
FXXX12 KWNP 091231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels. An unnumbered region beyond the NE
limb produced a C1.0 flare at 09/0353 UTC. Region 3628 (N08W07,
Cho/beta)
continued to support large, stable, symmetric penumbra and began to show
signs of evolving magnetic complexity. Region 3633 (S07E37,
Dso/beta-gamma) exhibited sustained mixed polarity in its intermediate
area, but remained relatively quiet. The remaining active regions were
either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels through 10 Apr.
Activity will likely increase on 11 Apr with the anticipated return of
old AR 3615, bringing a chance for M-class flare activity.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 10 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced. Total field strength
increased to 9 nT late in the period, the Bz component was variable at
+/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 375 km/s. Phi was positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to undergo enhancements over the
course of 09-10 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, which
will begin to wane on 11 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 09-10 Apr due to mostly
weak positive polarity CH HSS effects. A return to quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on 11 Apr as CH HSS effects begin to wane.