Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270531 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1131 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS OF 330 PM...ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. THERE WERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE CLOUDS QUICKLY FILLED BACK
IN. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S AT KINL TO THE LOWER
30S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT
AROUND 5 MPH.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR NW WI ZONES. BASED ON THE 12Z/18Z MODELS AND THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WOULD BE IN OUR FURTHER EAST LOCATIONS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
IN NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLURRIES
ACROSS NE MN...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS
WELL. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD START TO SPREAD INTO THE ADVISORY AREA.
THE MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME FGEN BANDING ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...AS WELL AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE HOPWRF ACTUALLY INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED
BAND OF EVEN MORE THAN 5 INCHES...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF VERY LOCALIZED BANDING.

THE WEATHER SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION. SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO
SEE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE SOME TIME. THINK IT WILL
BE PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR PULLS DOWN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A CLOSED H50 LOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS ONTARIO AND SETTLE OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONTS
WILL PRODUCE SNOW CHANCES AND BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR.
H85 TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS SUNDAY...REACHING THE
NEGATIVE 20S THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR AND NW
TRAJECTORIES WILL FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SNOW BELT REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND SNOWFALL ACCUMS
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO
MIX OUT...OR LIFT TO LOW-END VFR ACROSS NE MN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NW. HYR WILL SEE
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/SAT MORNING BEFORE
SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  21  11  18 /  10  10  10  20
INL   5  17  -4   7 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  15  21  13  19 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  23  24  11  22 /  90  70  10  20
ASX  23  24  13  21 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ003-004-
     007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...BJT






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