Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250850
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 08Z
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
NORTH. A SW FLOW WAS OVER THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A FEW
FLURRIES. MEANWHILE...A QUASI ZONAL FLOW WAS SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN A MID LEVEL TROF ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD THROUGH NW
ONTARIO BEFORE DISSOLVING. THE SFC LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH NE MN AND REACHING NW WI BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF FGEN AT H7
ARRIVES. BY MID MORNING...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH THIS FGEN AND A CONFLUENT
FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT LEAVING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER QPF AMOUNTS AND LOWER
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY.

THE H7 FGEN MAX LIFTS NORTHWARD A BIT TONIGHT WITH THE CONFLUENT
FLOW CONTINUING...EXITING NW WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MOVED SOME
POPS NORTHWARD AS A RESULT...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE AXIS OF GREATEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE FGEN
MAX...BUT STILL LOWER AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE OUT. THUS WILL KEEP PTYPE AS ALL SNOW.

ON FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROF DEPARTS. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING
WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH THE TROF AND DEEPEST MOISTURE. BY
AFTERNOON...THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED/EXITED AND A DRYING TREND
ENSUES AS SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LEFT SOME POPS IN NW WI IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE VCNTY OF
LINGERING MOISTURE. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS LOW. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE A STRONGER LOW AND MORE NORTHERLY PATH
THAN THE GFS. THE NAM12 HAS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT
THE LOW IS NOT AS STRONG. LEANED ON THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH
FAVORS MORE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
AND COLD FRONT COULD BRING A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

NEXT WEEK...THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. LEANED ON THE COLDER ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MAINLY IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
LOCALIZED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT AND WITH LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS LATER
TONIGHT...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL FGEN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS BAND
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT THE MID LEVEL FGEN IS FURTHER NORTH
IMPACTING KDLH/KHYR/KBRD. AT THIS TIME...WE DO BRING IN SNOW TO
KDLH/KHYR/KBRD EITHER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  27  30  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL  31  23  24   2 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  32  25  27  11 /  20  30  20  10
HYR  33  29  31  18 /  30  30  30  50
ASX  34  29  32  20 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE







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