Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 222348
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDLH AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD VERY WELL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING IS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP IN
PLACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
ON THURSDAY...TO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.