Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260403
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1103 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WEAKENS...ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED FROM
NORTHERN PINE COUNTY THROUGH THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
ALSO MOVING NEAR SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY AT 04Z. NO LIGHTNING FOR
NOW. MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR THIS CHANGE IN ACTIVITY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN.
PLENTY OF FGEN AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW WI AT 01Z WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 40S RIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HIB AND INL UNTIL 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. INL WILL MAINTAIN ITS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. EXPECT -DZ AND BR AT HIB/DLH TO ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIFR/IFR. DLH WILL HAVE VLIFR VSBYS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE
TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 14Z. BRD WILL HAVE IFR WITH VCSH/BR UNTIL
04Z THEN -DZ/BR TO 08Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HYR WILL BE VFR
UNTIL 05Z WITH VCSH. AFTER 05Z -DZ/BR AND MVFR TO NEAR 14Z THEN
VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  60  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  10  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF






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