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000
FXUS63 KDLH 170851
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
351 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds continue to howl along the North Shore and in the Twin
  Ports. The Wind Advisory has been extended through 7AM

- More rain today as a low pressure system moves from southern
  MN into central WI today. Some chance (15-25%) for
  thunderstorms in NW WI this morning.

- Active pattern continues through the end of the week with scattered
  rain showers possible (10-30%) on Thursday and early morning
  snow showers on Friday for northern MN. Accumulations will be
  less then half an inch and will quickly melt as we warm back
  into the 40s by Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Current conditions:

A 995mb Low pressure system was moving into southern MN this morning
with waves of precipitation emanating from its presence. Radar shows
additional moisture moving into the region with some cells in NW WI
showing some growth leading to some isolated lightning. The RAP
is highlighting some MUCAPE of around 100 J/Kg allowing for
continued chances (15-25%) for isolated thunderstorms through
the morning.

Today:

The aforementioned low pressure system is expected to weaken and
move east into central WI this afternoon. We are still seeing some
strong winds in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore with gusts
in the upper 40s. As such, the Wind Advisory has been extended to
7am. Wind speeds will be decreasing through the day and by the
afternoon winds will begin to back to out of the northwest. Rain
will take slightly longer to dissipate as wrap around moisture will
still influence the area into the late afternoon hours.

Thursday:

We continue an active weather pattern through the week as a
vertically stacked low moves west to east across Manitoba into
Ontario on Thursday. It`s associated cold front will be moving
across the region Thursday morning. Cyclonic flow aloft combined
with mid level moisture will lead to some scattered rain
showers/sprinkles. Some snow mixing in during the early morning
hours across northern MN will be possible but not expecting any
accumulations.

Friday:

Temperatures continue to cool into Friday as the Low moves towards
northern Lake Superior. This will be the best chances for seeing
some snowfall as our 850mb temps cool to -8C and allow for some
dendrite formation. That being said, not expecting much in way
of accumulations. Northern MN could see a dusting to half an
inch but temperatures warm to into the 40s by the afternoon
which will make quick work or any snow that happened to fall in
the cooler periods.

Weekend and early next week:

High pressure and drier air moves in from the west for the weekend
leading to some quieter conditions for the Northland. Highs rebound
into the upper 40s for Saturday and into the mid 50s by Sunday.
Drier conditions plus some gusty winds may lead to fire weather
concerns for the weekend. Precipitation chances (20-40%) return at
the start of the work week as the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance
begin to highlight another low advancing out of the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Radar and satellite this morning highlight a band of precipitation
crossing northern MN with another band developing in central MN
advancing north. Additional rain showers are expected through most
of the forecast period with some potential (less than 15%) of LTG.
Winds remain gusty, especially at DLH. Look for winds to begin
trending down as we head into the afternoon and they switch from
easterly to northwesterly. Ceilings are also expected to fall as a
low pressure crosses the Upper Midwest this morning. Ceilings will
gradually improve in the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Northeasterly winds continue to howl across the Lake with Gale
Warnings still in effect for most of the nearshore waters. Winds do
begin to subside this afternoon but Small Craft Advisories will
likely need to be carried into the evening hours as wave heights
will take extra time to come down. Westerly winds will increase
Thursday afternoon and will lead to hazardous conditions for small
vessels. We are also still monitoring the potential for gales to
return Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021-037.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ121.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>142.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ143>147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt