Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 051101
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...

CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF -SHRA AND CEILINGS AROUND 8 TO 10 KFT THIS MORNING...BUT
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVLOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  51  81  45 /  20   0  20  30
INL  83  52  80  39 /  20   0  20  10
BRD  81  53  85  47 /  10   0  20  20
HYR  71  50  81  47 /  20   0  10  40
ASX  70  49  82  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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