Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 291751 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  -6  16   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  20 -15  16  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  26  -1  21   9 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  30  -9  17   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  30  -1  16  10 /  20  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.