Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1155 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Please see the 06Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 404 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

At 4 PM, sunny skies prevailed across the Northland. Temperatures
had jumped into the middle 30s in a few locations along the North
Shore, namely Two Harbors and Silver Bay. Temperatures elsewhere
ranged from the mid 20s to around 30 with southwest winds.

The focus for tonight continues to be the vigorous, compact,
shortwave moving into the region from the northwest. Water vapor
imagery shows this feature well across south central Canada. The
models are generally in agreement in bringing this system very
quickly through the Northland, with the best consensus on bringing
a quick shot of precipitation to the region later tonight and
Thursday morning. While the system will be quite strong, it will
be rather moisture-starved and fast moving. This should mean snow
accumulations of generally an inch or less, along with some patchy
freezing drizzle at times as well.

The system will move out of the region on Thursday, leaving
partial sunshine for the afternoon. High temperatures are expected
to be even warmer on Thursday, with most locations settling into
the 30s for daytime highs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

The late week warmup for the Northland still looks to be on track.
The last push of warm air with 850 hPa temperatures of 8 to 11
degrees will arrive Thursday night into Friday. This will result in
surface temperatures in the upper 30s for most of the CWA. Some
western areas may reach 40 early Friday afternoon before a cold
front pushes through during the late afternoon hours. This clipper
system won`t have too much effect on the CWA, other than bringing in
some cooler air. There may be some freezing drizzle or sleet Friday
morning along the International Border, with perhaps some light
drizzle in the same areas ahead of the cold front, but most of the
activity will end up north of the border. Highs Saturday will still
be on the mild side with readings in the low to middle 30s.

The main concern in the long range continues to be the snow
potential for Sunday into Monday. The GFS, Euro and GEM continue to
show a Colorado Low moving from the Central Plains and into the
western Great Lakes and today`s 12z runs are no exception. This
latest run has shifted the storm track slightly to the north,
putting more of the Northland into the area of potential snowfall.
This northward shift also shifts the potential heaviest snowfall
into northwestern Wisconsin back into east-central and southwestern
Minnesota. However, more changes are expected until the system moves
onshore and enters into the upper-air network Friday evening.
Regardless, parts of the forecast area will see snow with this
system and the potential is there for heavier amounts. Another shot
of colder air will arrive behind this system, but temperatures look
to be pretty close to seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Low level wind shear will be a concern overnight into the morning
hours due to decoupled winds at the surface, and strong winds
aloft. Ceilings will gradually lower tonight across northeast
Minnesota as low pressure moves in from southern Manitoba. This
will spread freezing drizzle and light snow to INL/HIB. Based on
GFS/RAP/NAM soundings expect the freezing drizzle threat at INL
during the onset of precipitation, whereas HIB could see some
freezing drizzle as precipitation is tapering off late Thursday
morning. Have removed the prevailing snow at HYR/DLH as forecast
guidance has jogged the low a bit further north, which should keep
precipitation on the periphery of these sites.

High pressure will build in behind the departing low. This will
gradually scatter out ceilings Thursday afternoon, and bring a
return to VFR conditions at all terminals.


DLH  18  33  22  37 /  40  60   0  10
INL  17  33  20  39 /  60  60  10  30
BRD  18  35  22  40 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  15  33  20  39 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  18  33  22  40 /  40  50   0  10




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