Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261241 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Issued at 641 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Updated POPs, QPF, and snow amounts through today to reflect the
faster arrival of this next disturbance. Snowfall is farther north
and south than earlier forecast, so raised POPs across our
western zones and pull the band east across the Northland through
late this afternoon. Additional QPF yields a swath of 1 to 3
inches, which is a bit more than earlier expectations. Highest
accumulation should stretch from the Pine River vicinity in Cass
County along and north of MN Highway 210 into the Twin Ports, and
then across far northern Wisconsin.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

At 4 AM light to locally heavy snow was falling from the Twin
Ports east including Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and the northern
tier of northwest Wisconsin Counties. Visibility of three-quarters
of a mile have been reported, but there may be pockets with
visibility less than one-quarter mile. Snow reports have ranged
from a dusting to a little more than three inches during the
evening and overnight. A quasi-stationary front stretched from
northwest Ontario through northern Minnesota and across southern
South Dakota. A shortwave trough was located over northern
Minnesota with an area of frontogenesis oriented mainly east-west
from Lake Superior across the Twin Ports and into central
Minnesota. The area of snow seems to be supported by falling
heights from the approaching trough and enhanced forcing for
ascent with the FGEN band. Have issued an SPS for reduced
visibility and slippery driving conditions. MNDoT reported most
roads from Grand Rapids to near Brainerd and east to the Twin
Ports are snow covered.

Expect the first area of snow to scoot eastward across the
remainder of northwest Wisconsin by 9 AM. The Hi-Res Window ARW
core has been handling this band exceptionally well, along with
the next round of snow over the Red River Valley. Leaned heavily
on a blend of the ECAM and HiResW-ARW for POPs this today. ECAM
QPF seemed reasonable, too, so mixed a bit of that blend into the
grids. This yields a swath of up to 3 inches of snow from midnight
through noon today. A more organized area of snow will move
across our southern zones later this morning through the
afternoon. That band seems to be associated with the main
shortwave trough with robust FGEN and DCVA. Think the bulk of that
snow will fall generally south of MN Highway 200 and US Highway 2
in Minnesota and generally south of US Highway 2 in Wisconsin.

Rising heights behind the departing shortwave this afternoon
should bring precipitation to an end and may work to clear skies
over the northern half of the CWA. The break will be short-lived
as another shortwave trough and double-barreled surface reflection
will move into the Northland tonight. Cloud cover will increase
once again and light snow should spread eastward across northern
Minnesota overnight. Areas north of a Walker to Grand Rapids to
Grand Portage line will have the best chance of snow with
accumulation of up to 2 inches by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 413 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

An upper trough over the western third of the CONUS will move
over the central CONUS by midweek, then continue east late week. A
stronger shortwave and surface low will affect the Northland
Monday night through Tuesday night.

An inverted trough will extend north into Minnesota Monday night
from low pressure centered in the Central Plains. Although the
guidance handles the trough similarly, there are differences in
how much precipitation is generated with the ECMWF keeping much of
the area dry with most of the other models generating some light
snow. As the upper trough continues east, surface low pressure
will lift northeast toward southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois
on Tuesday continuing into Michigan Tuesday night/Wednesday.
There are significant differences in the track and timing of the
low leading to uncertainty in how much precipitation will occur.
At this time, we have the highest chance for precipitation on
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Temperatures do warm enough over the
southern half of the Northland for a wintry mix, mainly on
Tuesday and all rain may occur over portions of northwest
Wisconsin. Several inches of snow will be possible from late
Monday night into Tuesday night. High temperatures Tuesday will
range from 25 to 30 along the International Border, to 35 to 40
over northwest Wisconsin. Light snow may linger into Wednesday as
colder air moves in as the low/upper trough continue to pull away
from the region.

A relatively dry period will occur Wednesday night into Friday
with northwest flow aloft. There will be some chances for lake
effect snow along the south shore of Lake Superior, especially
Wednesday through Thursday. Some additional snowfall will be
likely. Highs Wednesday through Friday will range from 20 to 25
along the International Border, to 25 to 30 from the Brainerd
Lakes into northwest Wisconsin.

Warmer temperatures will move in Saturday bringing a chance for a
light mix over portions of the area. Highs will warm into the
lower thirties to around 40.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

An area of low pressure and shortwave aloft will move through
northern Minnesota this morning and through northern Wisconsin
this afternoon. Light snow will occur with these features as they
move through and IFR/MVFR conditions will occur over the area
before conditions improve to mainly VFR behind the low/shortwave.

There were two main areas of light snow occurring early this
morning. The light snow over northern Wisconsin will move east
over the next couple hours. Light snow over portions of
western/northern Minnesota will continue to move over far eastern
Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin as the morning progresses.
The snow will end from west to east occurring mainly over northern
Wisconsin this afternoon.

Another shortwave will bring a chance for more light snow to parts
of northern Minnesota tonight with possible MVFR ceilings.


DLH  24  12  36  23 /  90  20  20  40
INL  17   5  28  10 /  80  20  30  20
BRD  28  16  40  23 /  90  10  10  30
HYR  31  14  40  29 /  80   0  10  40
ASX  30  15  40  27 / 100  10  10  40




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