Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 252156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
350 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.  A POTENT SNOW
PRODUCER MISSED OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WE`LL EXPERIENCE THE ARCTIC AIR POURING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MID DAY
TOMORROW. THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE PLACE TO NOT ONLY BE
QUITE COLD...BUT HAVE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SOME WIND /ALBEIT LIGHT AT TIMES/ THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WITH
TEMEPRATURES EXPECTED IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BELOW ZERO...WIND
CHILL VALUES COLDER THAN -25F WILL BE ACHIEVED.

OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN IRON AND ASHLAND
COUNTIES.  ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL BE HELD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT WITH ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE FA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE SURFACE
HIGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD IOWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  IT WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IT`S INFLUENCE WILL STILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE FA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE...WITH THE SUB TROPICAL JET PUSHING
NORTH.  THIS WOULD INDICATED THE STORM TRACK WILL ALSO BE PUSHED
NORTH AND THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM WHERE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA AS
THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH IOWA TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH
AS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

THE NEXT AND BETTER OPPORTUNITY COMES TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS
AND EC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN A DECENT STORM COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION WELL
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH SET UP.  SO...CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT BEING 6
DAYS AWAY...THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
25/18Z TAF SET. MID-TO-UPR LVL CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AS
KBRD...WHICH IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/SRN MN LOW
PRES CENTER SHIFTING OFF TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY TDA. THE
REMAINING SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN UPR LVL SCT CLOUDS AND SKC...WITH
MAINLY NRN TAF SITES REMAINING CLR. ALL SITES WILL SCATTER OUT BY
THIS EVENING...INCLUDING SOME GOING SKC ALL NIGHT...AHEAD OF HIGH
PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION TMRW. ONLY HIGH SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED
TMRW. WINDS TO REMAIN NW THRU MIDDAY TMRW...SLIGHTLY BACKING FROM
350 TDA TO 310-320 TMRW...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9 -14   7 MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
INL   3 -25   5 MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
BRD  10 -13   8 MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
HYR  10 -15   8 MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
ASX   8 -13   7 MMM /  10  10  10 MMM

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JPC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.