Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 260544
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BASED ON EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WE LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST IN SPOTS
AND WE HAVE THAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE IRON RANGE AND BORDER REGION
LATER TONIGHT.

WE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT AND HAVE RECENTLY SEEN KRPD
DROP TO 1.5 MILES IN FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND IS FINALLY PULLING
OUT OVER QUEBEC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
DECK OF CLOUDS STILL SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BUT THESE WERE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER GETS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM
MODELS AREA HINTING THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT
BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHTER WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE MORNING HOURS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW MOVING LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. OVERALL INSTABILITY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS RATHER WEAK SO ONLY WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVER THE ST. CROIX
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE SEASON WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
70S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WARMING TO THE LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE HIGH WILL BUILD
EASTWARDS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AT ALL TERMINALS...AND WINDS HAVE BECOME VERY LIGHT. RADIATIONAL
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...AS SEEN IN THE
LATEST OBS. SO BROUGHT IN FOG AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT FOR KINL.
MOST CONFIDENT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KHYR AND KHIB
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. LESS CONFIDENT AT KDLH OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
STILL MENTIONED FOG DUE TO SURROUNDING OBS AND PAST FEW RAP/HRRR
RUNS. ALL TERMINALS THAT SEE FOG DEVELOP WILL SEE VISBY JUMP UP
AND DOWN ALL NIGHT. RADIATIONAL FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AROUND
13Z TO 14Z. AFTER THIS POINT VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  75  58  72 /   0  10  40  30
INL  48  77  55  76 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  52  77  59  75 /   0  20  30  30
HYR  43  75  57  73 /   0  10  40  40
ASX  46  76  59  74 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WL


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