Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270539 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1239 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Some showers continue to develop along the same ares between Cook
and Ely and move Northeast. No lightning has been noted with
these cells in the last hour. Some additional showers are forming
from Eveleth to Hoyt Lakes. Made some adjustments to pops.

UPDATE Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Other than some light rain at KCDD, which should end shortly,
cumulus field has diminished with the loss of diurnal heating.
Cirrus blow off from the storms over Iowa will eventually cover
the forecast area. Some stratus and fog is beginning to leak
inland from Lake Superior. Made some adjustments, especially to
pops, for the rest of tonight as ridging surface/aloft covers the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A surface boundary nearly bisected the Northland from northwest to
southeast this afternoon. Subsidence behind the departing shortwave
that impacted northwest Wisconsin this morning has led to mostly dry
conditions this afternoon. Weak shortwave ridging has built into
the area this afternoon and will continue into the early evening.
A few showers/storms will remain possible this afternoon into the
evening hours along and north of the surface boundary and we will
keep some low pops for that. A few have recently developing over
Ashland/Iron counties. Much of the guidance, including the CAMS,
supports at least low POPS. MUCAPE values have risen to 500-1000
J/KG over our western and southern zones and we expect those
values to rise further east as gradual clearing works east. Deep
layer shear was around 30 knots for much of the area. There will
be at least an isolated threat for strong/severe storms into the
evening over parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The upper flow will transition from the weak short wave ridging to
southerly as a deeper trough moves east into the Northern Plains to
the southern plains. We will delay the chance for showers/storms
tonight as much of the guidance is in agreement on a slower
development. The chance will then increase through the day Friday as
a shortwave moves into the area along with a surface low with a
surface front extending north to south through the area. PWAT values
will rise to 1 to 1.4 inches so plenty of moisture will be
available. We do have likely POPS over parts of the Northland
despite both the SPC WRF and NSSL WRF suggesting isolated/scattered
coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

An unstable flow will allow several waves to track across the region
through the extended period, keeping showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for most of the upcoming week.

A short wave with 850hPA closed low will lift northward across
minnesota and into Ontario Saturday and saturday night. models are
in good agreement PWATs increase to around 1.5" during this time,
along with deeply saturated profiles and a few hundred j/kg of CAPE
to provide sufficient instability and moisture for periods of heavy
rain.

A west to northwest flow will bring drier air into the northland as
the low retreats towards Hudson bay on Sunday. LIngering showers and
storms are expected mainly in the eastern zones across the MN
arrowhead and over northern WI during the morning...ending
through the afternoon.

Surface high pressure and mid level ridging build over the forecast
area Monday. have continued to carry small pops for an isolated
shower or storm Monday. however, this time frame looks like the best
shot for a dry day in most areas across the forecast area.

Focus turns to a stacked low pressure system that will translate
along the international border and bring a threat for storms and
periods of heavy rain towards the end of next week. at this
time...Long range models suggest a warm front lifts into the western
great lakes region Tuesday...with the low pressure center sweeping
the cold front across the region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  I would anticipate the timing of this system slows down and
impacts the northland more towards the end of the week as typical
for this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR at the start of the forecast, but there will be some stratus
and patchy fog in vicinity of DLH. Some fog is possible at KDLH
and KHIB early this morning. Timing the onset of the showers and
thunderstorms is low as is the confidence as models disagree on
the initiation. Began with VCSH in the late morning at BRD/HYR
and into the afternoon elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will
spread northward into the region late in the afternoon evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  65  52  64 /   0  60  60  70
INL  50  75  55  71 /  10  50  50  60
BRD  55  74  57  72 /   0  50  60  60
HYR  52  75  58  74 /  10  70  70  70
ASX  48  64  53  69 /   0  70  70  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Graning
avaition...CLC


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