Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 220859
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WINDS WERE CALM. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AT KCDD TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND. A FEW LOWER 40S WERE EVEN FOUND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOCAL FOG WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR KPWC AND KAIT.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG THE EXTREME INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION LATER TODAY. THE NAM AND THE 4KM NMM WRF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IF THEY DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH/SW LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF INTO THE CWA...BUT THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF HOLD ANY QPF OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MILD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A SOGGY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM DUE TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
TUES/WED/THURS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A SPRING FROST/FREEZE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  46  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
INL  72  44  77  45 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  72  46  69  50 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  73  43  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  65  43  74  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL





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