Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 201950
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY BRINGING A LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH SOME STRONG
WINDS THIS EVENING..AND THEN LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS INTO
MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER NW WISCONSIN.

INSTABILITY IS MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE THAT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 245 PM.
HOWEVER..CAPE <= 1000 J/KG WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING..DESPITE DECENT SHEAR/FLOW AND
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS..WITH PERHAPS A STORM OF TWO GETTING STRONG ENOUGH FOR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.

INITIAL LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z
AFTER OUTRUNNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE EAST..BY
AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SUSTAINED ASCENT
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WHILE THUNDER CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME..THERE SHOULD STILL BE DECENT COVERAGE OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING..ESP OVER NW WISCONSIN.

LINGERING RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY..WITH
DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES TO
AROUND 70.

A SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND...THEN OVER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...COVERAGE AND PRECIP INTENSITY BOTH LOOK TO BE LIMITED. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS FRIDAY RISING
TO 70 TO 75 FOR MOST AREAS. WE HAVE SOME SMALL POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY THINNING/DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT KBRD/KHYR/KINL TO BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT IN MOST TAFS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. KBRD WILL
BE FIRST TO SEE THEM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY TOWARD KBRD...AND LEAST LIKELY OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
WE EXPECT SOME LOWER CEILINGS TO OCCUR WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS...THEN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS
WILL START TO LIFT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  64  47  67 /  90  20   0   0
INL  49  62  42  69 /  70  10   0   0
BRD  50  64  44  69 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  50  62  40  66 /  90  30  10   0
ASX  49  59  43  67 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






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