Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 030608 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
108 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER N-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A
BRISK NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAKING IT NOTICEABLY COOLER BY
THE LAKE.

UPPER S/W THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AND PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER NRN
WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS BRUSHING PORTIONS OF SAWYER...ASHLAND...IRON AND
PRICE COUNTIES. THIS PRECIP SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD ON THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND OVERRUN A SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR-SFC LAYER TONIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG. THE
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW AND
COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND TO INDUCE A NE WIND OVER THE
LAKE. THIS WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT FINDS UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF NW WI. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGING HANGING
ON OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. A WAA SW FLOW RETURNS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDES NEWD THROUGH EASTERN ND. REMOVED THE POPS ON
FRIDAY OVER THE WEST AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS OVER NW MN AND
EASTERN ND. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NEWD INTO
CANADA WITH THE REGION STILL IN THE SW FLOW. FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHICH IS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NEARBY AND ALIGNED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY WHICH KEEPS
ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM AFFECTING THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SFC
MODELS ARE LEAVING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING MN FROM NE
TO SW. AS SUCH...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOWERED THE POPS. SATURDAY NIGHT FINDS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND AND WESTERN MN.
MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW IS ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. USED A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS AS MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF QPF.
SHOULD BE SOME FAST MOVING STORMS WITH A 40-45 KT JET AT H85 OVER
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN MT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO NW
ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE LOW AND USHERS IN COOLER AIR. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT PRIMARILY NE MN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HAS LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS NW WI AND WEST
FROM DLH TO AIT/HZX/XVG. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP AT
BRD/HIB/INL OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT IFR VSBYS/CIGS IS
LOWEST AT BRD AND INL...AND VERY HIGH AT DLH/HIB/HYR. CATEGORIES
WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT
EASTERLY WINDS AT DLH WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  79  67  84 /  10  10  10  40
INL  64  86  67  80 /  10  10  50  40
BRD  68  86  69  84 /   0  10  50  40
HYR  64  83  68  85 /  10  10  10  20
ASX  61  85  66  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...HUYCK



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