Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 070006
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
606 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE FAST MOVING LITTLE CLIPPER
DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND LINGERING
CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE GOTTEN INTO SOME DOWNRIGHT BALMY TEMPERATURES
WITH THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON UP IN THE LOW 30S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME MID 30S EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...TO OUR NORTHWEST CANADIAN RADAR DATA SHOWING A NICE BAND
OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...TRACKING OUR DIRECTION.  MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS CLIPPER AND ITS BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BEING
HOW MUCH DRY AIR THE WAVE HAS TO SNOW DOWN THROUGH BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND.  HAVE GONE WITH SOME CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. THIS IS ALREADY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE BY A LOT...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS NEEDS TO
BE RAISED SOME MORE.  MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO REMAIN MILD...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND GENERALLY MILD AIRMASS IN THE AREA.

SATURDAY THE CLIPPER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY...LEAVING
MUCH OF THE AREA HIGH AND DRY WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER ON THE LAKE THAT
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND JUST BARELY COLD ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY OVER IRON COUNTY.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH SO HAVE ONLY SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
THIS.  HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A MILDER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH HOW WARM THINGS CAN GET WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON...JUST A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT
NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE NEXT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT NO STRONG SIGNALS AT THIS
TIME.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO A MORE ZONAL/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING ITS WAY
SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID TO LATE WEEK. MODEL SPREAD IS VERY LARGE AND
HAS ONLY GROWN IN RECENT DAYS...AT DLH THE GEFS MOS HAS SOLUTIONS
FOR A HIGH TEMP ON WEDNESDAY FROM 24 TO 43...AND THE MDL ECMWF AN
EVEN LARGER SPREAD FROM 23 TO 55. WHILE PART OF THIS IS DRIVEN BY
THE WIDE RANGE OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...BELIEVE THIS MAY ALSO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO HOW THE
SNOW FIELD REACTS TO THE WARMTH. IN THIS SITUATION PREFER TO LEAN
TOWARDS CLIMO AND THE COLDER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW
PACK ACROSS THE REGION /EVEN WITH THE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL SNOW
DEPTH/.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
POSSIBLY ENDING AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY
A HALF INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. SKIES CLOUDY MOST OF THE TIME...CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...GUSTS AROUND 20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20...HIGHS ON SUNDAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MON/TUE/WED...WARMER AND DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHEAST MN AND MOST OF NW
WISCONSIN...UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FARTHER NORTH IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. AS STATED ABOVE...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE SO
HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AROUND...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO NUDGE WARMER
AND WARMER. CANADIAN /GEM/ HAS BEEN WARMER WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TEMPS...BUT AT THE SURFACE THE 2M TEMPS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY NEAR THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE DRY
NO MATTER THE TEMPS...AND WHILE MONDAY MAY BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH COULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END
TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL WITH THIS FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...A FAST MOVING WILL SPREAD LOWERING CEILINGS...LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF
MVFR CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND AT KINL AND KHIB...MAINLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  32  16  36 /  50   0  20  10
INL  20  27  14  34 /  40  20  40  40
BRD  23  33  19  37 /  20  10  20   0
HYR  22  34  15  36 /  30   0  20  20
ASX  24  36  16  37 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GRANING





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