Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270849
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
249 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROF WERE MOVING SLOWLY EWD
WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF AND INTO
EAST CENTRAL MN AND NW WI AT 08Z. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW CENTER WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN IA WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF JUST E OF PBH WI.
LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING FROM SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY MN THROUGH MUCH OF
NW WI. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GREATER THAN ONE MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
RADAR HAS ESTIMATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WASHBURN...CENTRAL SAWYER INTO SW ASHLAND COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BURNETT COUNTY WI. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
INDICATE SOME MODERATE SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
OF NW WI BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS
IS. THIS SAME GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT THE SNOW WILL
END/EXIT THE AREA BY 21Z AND HAVE FOLLOWED BY TRENDING DOWN THE
POPS/SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE FOR A TIME TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR DRIFTS OVER THE AREA BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST.

A TROF WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN MN TONIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS OVER
KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES AS A RESULT. A MENTION
OF FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH
NO APPRECIABLE FORCING NEARBY.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW/TROF DEPARTS ALLOWING SFC RIDGING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION/FETCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE
POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES. TRENDED THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES AND THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BRING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER MOST
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ONE INCH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD AIR WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
BORDERLAND TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE ZERO OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO
MIX OUT...OR LIFT TO LOW-END VFR ACROSS NE MN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NW. HYR WILL SEE
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/SAT MORNING BEFORE
SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  11  15  -1 /  10  10  10  10
INL  18  -6   5 -11 /   0  20  10   0
BRD  21  12  16   0 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  26  11  19   5 / 100   0  10  20
ASX  26  13  18   9 /  70   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ003-004-
     007>009.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...BJT





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