Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 010246 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
946 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING..WITH
A COOL LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
RATHER THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA..WITH A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL RADAR ECHOES PRESENT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT OVERNIGHT..AS ADDITIONAL
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE NW CWA. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE..WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS LIMITING COOLING JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE THE ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S..MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY
COLD MONDAY MORNING FOR FROST FORMATION..ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN WHERE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST. STILL..IT WILL ONLY TAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF CLEARING FOR
TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY..SO WE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS LAID OUT BY THE DAYSHIFT. HOWEVER..AREAS
MOST AT RISK FOR FROST WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED LOW LYING AREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MN ARROWHEAD REGION. /I.E.
TOWER/EMBARRASS/BRIMSON/ETC/.

WINDS ACROSS THE SW TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE DIED DOWN WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE..AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
COLD AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A DRY UPPER S/W IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A BATCH
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR IS ALSO LINGERING OVER THE
REGION AND WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/W COMBINES WITH THE SFC HIGH...CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREA. THE LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER THAT COULD HANG OUT TO THE SOUTH AND
LIMIT THE AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE DRY AIR AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST TOMORROW AND KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET. THE MESO HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN PLACE TOMORROW AND ALLOW A NE WIND TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND
USHER IN A COOL MARINE LAYER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY
NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS TODAY BUT WILL STILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
TWIN PORTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. OTHER AREAS INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY LOSES ITS
GRIP ON THE NORTHLAND WEATHER. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY FOR ALL DAY TUESDAY AS WELL.
HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL POP IN THE FAR WEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP ANY QPF WEST OF OUR
CWA THROUGH THAT TIME. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MIDWEEK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND AS A RESULT WE
SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE A
SIMILAR DRY HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD WILL MOST OFTEN BE IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL OCCASIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST WINDOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO A POSITION NORTH OF
GEORGIAN BAY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO FALLING
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W TROF MOVING ON TO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE BY LATE MORNING MONDAY
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDLH..AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MARGINALLY GUSTY AT KINL/KHIB/KBRD. KDLH IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A
RATHER STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS FROM LK
SUPERIOR MARINE LAYER AND MESO-HIGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT..WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME CIRRUS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS SOME SCT CUMULUS IN THE KINL
AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  43  69 /   0   0   0  10
INL  37  68  47  75 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  40  66  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  66  42  74 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  34  61  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ001>004-008-009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     143>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MILLER






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