Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 272015
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE
UNITED STATES AND SE CANADA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SW THROUGH FAR NW
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE WAS A SUBTLE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NW IOWA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...10 TO 15 MPH S TO SSW WINDS...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT IN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, THE
NORTHERN AND NW FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO...THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL
AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A WET NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM ONTARIO ON MONDAY...BRINGING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE CWA. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE IN
PRONOUNCED COOLER NW FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED FOG COULD DROP VSBYS/CIGS INTO
THE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS TO KINL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  76  47  49 /   0  10  70  50
INL  55  64  43  54 /   0  60  70  20
BRD  57  78  51  58 /   0  10  40  20
HYR  56  81  48  56 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  57  79  47  51 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






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