Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
926 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MORE THAN 8 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR IN
GILE...HAVE OPTED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR IRON COUNTY.
LOOKS LIKE UP TO 12 COULD PILE UP BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE OTHER THAN THE EARLIER GALE
WARNING WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AT GRAND MARAIS AS
OF 9 PM. THE DULUTH WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN CONSIDERABLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
NORTHLAND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE KHYR AREA...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






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