Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 042046
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT 330 PM...IT WAS A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HAZY AND SMOKY SUNSHINE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER
80S WELL INLAND.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY SMOKE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...AS THE AIR QUALITY IS IN THE UNHEALTHY
RANGE IN THAT AREA AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOWEST IN THAT AREA. IN
TERMS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WE COULD SEE SOME MIGRATE INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REGROUP ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD STILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...WHICH SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES
REACHING 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS NE MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN CLIMBING EVEN FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE MINNESOTA AND
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE...DEEP MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2 TO 2.25 INCHES...WELL OVER 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN IS FOR THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...OTHER THAN FLASH FLOODING...APPEAR TO
BE LOW CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE NAM12/SREF
INDICATE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ALONG THE AXIS OF CONVECTION...BUT THE BETTER WIND SHEAR WILL TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HAIL
DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
DEEP...FAT CAPE FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 03Z. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SW AND WEST CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WHERE
MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD BUILD INTO THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE.

MONDAY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA DIGS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH. THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND OR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES. THE GFS HAS A FARTHER WEST LOW TRACK THAN THE
GEM/ECMWF/NAM...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS. THE LATTER MODELS
KEEP THE HEAVIEST PCPN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...MOSTLY OVER NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER NE MINNESOTA. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EVALUATE THE SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS TO BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE. IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THEN THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD FALL ON VERY SATURATED SOILS FROM THE RAINS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...AS WELL AS FALL IN TERRAIN MORE PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING...SUCH AS THE NORTH SHORE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

TUESDAY...THE COOLEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE THIS DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE A COOL AND DRY
DAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARM LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HAZY SKIES BECAUSE OF SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KDLH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...WITH A 35 TO 45 KNOT JET
AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOPING BY THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE
LLJ WEAKENS IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW YET TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  82  66  71 /  10  60  90  90
INL  63  79  60  69 /  30  80  40  30
BRD  63  86  67  75 /  10  70  90  80
HYR  62  86  69  73 /  10  10  80  90
ASX  56  84  66  71 /   0  10  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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