Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH CU NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. SMOKE FROM
THE WESTERN FIRES IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MILKY-LIKE SKY ACROSS THE
AREA. ONE MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH THE SMOKE WILL CUT THE
DOWN THE SUN MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST-EAST MONDAY AT
THE MID-LEVELS SO THERE WILL BE SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ND AND WILL BE APPROACHING
WESTERN MN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREAS. WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INHIBIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DRY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL TURN INTO A
MORE DEVELOPED WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING. AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN...A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MAKE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MINNESOTA ON MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS AND SOME FOG. THIS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
LAST NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE SHOULD THEN SEE THAT BURN OFF DURING THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  84  64  84 /  10  10  30  20
INL  64  84  55  82 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  65  85  60  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  62  83  65  84 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  63  86  65  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DAP



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