Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251147
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014


645 AM AVIATION UPDATE AT BOTTOM

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEPARTED AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH 8 AM
BEFORE DIMINISHING. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC LOW WAS CENTERED FROM NE ND INTO SE MANITOBA AT
07Z. A COLD FRONT HAD REACHED THE ARROWHEAD AND EXTENDED SWD TO JUST
W OF HYR. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WAS ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS. THE STORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 09Z. EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL SFC OBS. THE FOG
SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE EWD. THE
BULK OF THE FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z. A CLEARING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SW FLOW THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO BY 18Z. A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
PASS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW AND BRING ENOUGH FORCING TO WRING OUT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KOOCHICHING INTO NW ST. LOUIS COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A SHORT WAVE TROF BY 06Z TONIGHT AS
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CENTER MOVE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TONIGHT DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS INTO WESTERN MN. THERE
SHOULD BE NO FOG FOR A CHANGE AS THE SFC WIND SHOULD STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FORMATION. THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FA ON TUESDAY
KEEPING THE FA RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.  AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT.  ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NW WI HAVING ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION.   A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION.  A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT
MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MORNING FOG IS CAUSING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
VSBYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CU
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  50  67  51 /   0   0  10  10
INL  66  45  63  41 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  69  49  69  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  81  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  81  53  68  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART






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