Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270547
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1147 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Have expanded the dense fog advisory into Wisconsin and now
includes all counties in the forecast area. Temperatures will
hover generally in the upper 20s to low 30s. Some slick spots on
roads, sidewalks and elevated surfaces will be possible. The fog
will gradually lift after 1000 am.

UPDATE Issued at 447 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Fog is developing rapidly this evening, with Hibbing and Eveleth having
dropped to a quarter mile already, and dewpoint depressions are
with just a few degrees in surrounding areas. Of course, the
Brainerd Lakes region was already down in fog most of the day, and
are just going to get worse tonight. Now that fog is developing
have decided to issue a dense fog advisory for much of northeast
Minnesota. We may need to issue for additional counties later this
evening as trends become better defined.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 413 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Clouds have been the main forecast problem today, with associated
issues with temperatures.  Clouds have cleared out of almost all of
the forecast area except an area over by Brainerd Lakes and from
Hinckley east through Hayward almost to Phillips, and most of Cook
county.  With temperatures nearly everywhere having gotten above
freezing today, we will have added plenty of low level moisture by
melting some of the snow pack.  Thus, we are just going to develop
fog and stratus once again tonight.  Have cloud cover and fog
developing right after sunset and expanding through the night.  Our
next storm system will spread into the area from the southwest
Sunday and Sunday night, with high clouds moving in from the
southwest during the day on Sunday and some chance pops moving in
during the afternoon. The convergence along the higher terrain of
the North Shore may produce some precipitation up there during the
afternoon as well.  This is depicted fairly well on most of the hi
res models, though the lower res models do not show it as well.
Stratus already in place Sunday morning is unlikely to lift with the
higher cloud spreading over the top of it, so have left cloud cover
very high through the day.  High temperatures should get into the
mid 30s to low 40s with the warm air advection, even without
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 413 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016
HOwever,
The main focus for the long term period will continue to be the
major low pressure system that will move across the Upper Midwest.
Precipitation is expected to rapidly advance northward across the
region on Sunday night, with a majority of the precipitation
expected to be in the form of rain. There may be a bit of a mix at
the onset across the north, but not expecting much in the way of
snow accumulation, if any. Will continue to mention the potential
for thunder on Monday, as a nose of instability lifts northward
along with a major dry slot. The big question remains whether the
dry slot will move across much of the eastern half of the CWA, so
will continue to dial back on POP`s on Monday night and early
Tuesday, before the upper level low starts to fill and essentially
parks itself across the Northland through much of the work week.
As a result, we should see precipitation continue off and on for
much of the work week. Overall, during the day there should be a
good deal of rain or a rain/snow mix, with precipitation becoming
mainly snow from Tuesday night through Thursday night. We are not
looking for much in the way of snow accumulation during the week
due to the warm air in place across the region, but we could see
some slushy accumulation at night in spots. Highs will generally
be in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with lows in the upper 20s to mid
30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Widespread dense fog will persist across the forecast area through
15Z Sunday. Although the fog and visibilities will improve
through the late morning hours, IFR to LIFR ceilings will
continue through the day. Rain will lift into the region generally
after 00Z monday, becoming widespread after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  39  36  45 /   0  20  80  60
INL  21  37  34  44 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  28  39  37  46 /   0  10  80  40
HYR  31  42  38  47 /   0   0  80  60
ASX  31  42  38  49 /   0   0  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 4 AM CST Tuesday for
     LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 4 AM CST Tuesday for
     LSZ142>145.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for
     LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Graning
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Graning



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