Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270603
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
103 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WHERE
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING. THESE STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HEATING DECREASES. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODELS...SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MN. MAIN ACTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WEST AFTER 18Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING OF ON-GOING WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN IN A LOW SHEAR-1000 TO 200 CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. RADAR HAS INDICATED THE STORMS ARE NEARLY VERTICAL
AND MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL. THEY DO HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THEM
WITH 0.72 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES AT AITKIN. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH THEY ARE PROBABLY
AT OR NEAR THEIR LARGEST AREAL EXTENT FOR TODAY. STORMS ARE
ACTUALLY FAIRLY FAR APART AND ARE INDIVIDUALLY VERY
SMALL...TYPICAL AIRMASS PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CAPE AND VERY
LOW SHEAR. DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH OUT OF THEM EXCEPT SOME VERY
LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONGER STORMS OVER IN
WADENA AND TODD COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE NORTHLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
DISSIPATE BY 04Z AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT...LEAVING US WITH
CLEAR/NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CLEAR SKIES ARE GOING TO ALLOW
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OUR NEXT STRONG WEATHER MAKER
IS GOING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND FRONTOGENESIS TO KICK OFF LOTS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UNLIKE TODAY...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME MODERATE
CAPE AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR NOSING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH
HIGHER VALUES TO OUR WEST.  THUS...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TOMORROW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL HAVE A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
CHARACTER THAN TODAY AND EXPECT MUCH STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS POTENTIAL
EASES OFF AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EASES OFF FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SATURDAY TO GET PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 ONCE AGAIN...BUT COOLING OFF FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND TO HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE NORTHLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF/GFS RUNS BOTH HINT AT TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROTATES SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE
HEELS OF THE FIRST.

AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO TREND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AT AREA TERMINALS... WITH KHIB/KHYR HAVING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR VIS/CIGS GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BEFORE 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z. THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE GREATEST THREAT... MAINLY FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT THE KINL AND KBRD SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  59  74  57 /  30  70  60  30
INL  77  57  77  57 /  60  70  40  20
BRD  83  61  79  58 /  50  60  30  10
HYR  82  59  75  56 /  10  60  70  30
ASX  82  58  74  54 /  10  40  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



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