Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 161733
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

At 330 AM, skies were mostly clear across the Northland. Some high
clouds were spreading into the western half of the CWA, although
they were fairly thin. Temperatures ranged from 25 in Hibbing to
42 at the Grand Marais Harbor.

After a cooler than normal Sunday, temperatures will moderate
across the Northland starting today. A low pressure system moving
across the central Canadian Prairie, will bring a warm front from
west to east across the region today, allowing our area to be in
the warm sector. Strong warm advection will allow temperatures to
warm into the middle 50s in the Arrowhead, and the lower 60s in
the west. Gusty south to southwest winds will also develop today.
Moisture will be limited with the passage of the warm front, but
some moisture in the 15k to 20k foot range will allow for mid to
high clouds throughout the day. It still appears most areas will
see abundant sunshine today, as it should be fairly thin.

Skies will clear across the region tonight, with temperatures
dropping into the 30s.

High pressure, and a quasi-zonal upper level flow will bring
another quiet and warm day for Tuesday. Highs will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The Northland can expect a relatively warm and dry week. A thermal
ridge will spread into the Northland Tuesday night and early
Wednesday as a deep low tracks east across central Saskatchewan and
central Manitoba. A strong cold front will then quickly sweep
through the Northland Wednesday afternoon and evening. Despite the
cold front, high temperatures will still get relatively warm in the
lower to middle 60s. It looks like deep mixing will develop in the
westerly flow in the wake of the front. This mixing could make for
very dry and gusty weather across central and north-central
Minnesota in the afternoon and early evening, causing a concern
for potential critical fire weather conditions.

A surface ridge will build into the Northland from the west
Wednesday night, providing a clear and cold night across the
Northland. The cold spell is short-lived. An amplifying mid-level
ridge will build into the north-central US Thursday, and breezy
southerly flow will bring in unseasonably warm air into the region.
The southerly flow will continue towards the end of the week. It
looks like high temperatures will culminate Friday with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s, about 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal normal!

The models are in good agreement in indicating a cold front will
move through the Northland, from west to east, Saturday and Saturday
night, bringing rain to the region. It`s too far out to get much
sense for the potential for thunder, but cannot rule it out. Left
thunder out of the forecast though. Forecast high temperatures drop
back down to the upper 50s and low 60s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period at all sites
with just a few high-level clouds across northeast Minnesota
today. South-southwest winds today gusting up to around 15-20
knots at times, becoming light tonight. A brief period of low
level wind shear will impact DLH and HYR early this evening due to
a strengthening low level jet ahead of a cold front. Clear skies
and light (5-10 knot) southwest winds for Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  41  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  61  39  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  58  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  40  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-142>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...JJM



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