Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 281744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER WARM FALL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS...AND
TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...BRINGING POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THERE COULD BE
SOME 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ARROWHEAD. GIVEN ENOUGH WIND DO
NOT THINK AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE FROST THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S
TO SSW WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH OVC MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MVFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE KINL AREA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
THE KBRD AND KDLH AREA BY 2Z...AND THE KHYR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL A WIND SWITH TO THE N AND/OR NE...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
DETERIORIATING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM
-RA/BR. THE KDLH AREA COULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED TERMINAL DUE TO
THE COOL AND HUMID ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST
TERMINALS RETURNING TO MVFR CIGS. THE KHYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
IFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF THUNDER FOR THE KHIB/KBRD AND JUST
NORTH OF THE KDLH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  48  48  41 /  20  80  30  20
INL  64  41  52  36 /  80  80  10   0
BRD  80  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  80  47  53  37 /  10  40  40  10
ASX  82  45  50  39 /  10  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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