Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 151000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
400 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

An upper level trof was moving through northern Minnesota at
0730Z/130am. A very dry atmosphere is in place over the forecast
area with high pressure centered over southeast Minnesota. The only
thing the trof could generate was a patch of cirrus near the
Canadian border.

The upper trof washes out by 18Z/12pm. The surface high center
drifts to southern Wisconsin. May see a few more clouds along the
Canadian border, but no precipitation. On the backside of this high,
warm air advection begins and 850mb temps rise to 0C over northwest
Wisconsin to 2C over the western edge of the forecast area. Max
temps will be in the 20s.

A quasi-zonal flow covers the region tonight with weak warm
advection continuing. The surface high remains in the vicinity of
southern Wisconsin tonight. Low temps will be in the single digits
above zero, with 10 to 15 near Lake Superior.

On Monday, upper level and surface ridging cover the region.
However, a closed upper low will move from the Oklahoma panhandle to
northwest Missouri. This will send a surface low, which is
vertically stacked with the closed low, into northwest Missouri. A
shield of precipitation will lift northward from this system toward
the far southern edge of the forecast area late Monday afternoon.
The NAM is the only model that brings any into the area and was
ignored. Used a compromise of the other models which kept the region
dry on Monday. Max temps will be a bit warmer with upper 20s to
lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Three main concerns during the long term are the early week system
with potential for wintry mix, much above average temperatures for
the rest of the week, and a potential for precipitation Friday night
into next weekend.

Models have shifted a bit farther south with the track of the early
week system and a more progressive pattern with the 15.00Z and
15.06Z deterministic and ensemble runs. Cutoff upper low is still
forecast to lift northeastward from the Big Bend region of Texas
today to near Kansas City, MO by Monday evening and then east-
northeast to near Buffalo, NY by Tuesday night. A northern stream
shortwave trough will cross the northern Rockies and move into the
Dakotas Monday morning and then dig into the Central Plains Monday
night and Tuesday. The northern stream trough is a little slower
this morning and is expected to kick the upper low eastward rather
than phasing with. The more progressive cutoff low featured by this
morning`s guidance would result in less precipitation for the
Northland with the best forcing located over southern Minnesota and
central and southern Wisconsin. GFS and NAM favor a more easterly
track with a shorter duration precip event, and therefore less QPF
overall. ECMWF/GEM still bring a robust band of precip into
Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties Monday night. Given the
uncertainty in timing, location, and intensity, there is still a
potential for a mix of snow, sleet, or freezing rain Monday night
through late Tuesday morning for interior portions of northwest
Wisconsin. Interestingly the 15.00Z NAM was warmest and produced a
longer period of freezing rain or sleet from a Hayward to Bayfield
line and eastward. The 15.06Z run, however, shunts precip farther
east along with the warmer temperatures aloft. Not sold on this
change just yet, but if the 15.12Z runs continue the cooler and
eastward trend, the potential for mixed precip would effectively
drop to zero. Trended POPs a bit lower Monday night and Tuesday, in
the direction of the consensus but not quite as aggressive as a
straight CONS blend. With the northern stream shortwave still
offshore west of British Columbia and Washington state as of 15.00Z,
another shift in the forecast is possible after then 15.12Z
soundings sample the disturbance.

The progressive pattern aloft brings another northern stream
shortwave across the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The GFS is most aggressive with this feature
and would support a slight chance of snow showers or flurries late
overnight into mid-morning Wednesday. As the complex upper trough
finally pushes east of the region Wednesday night, a high amplitude
ridge will build into the Plains and the Midwest resulting in a
period of quieter weather and warmer temperatures. High temperatures
will rise above freezing in northwest Wisconsin as early as Tuesday
afternoon, with highs in the low to upper 30s across the Northland
Wednesday. There may even be a few 40s Thursday and Friday. There is
still a slight chance of another storm system moving into the area
Friday through next weekend. The GEM, GFS, and ECMWF all feature a
shortwave trough or cutoff low developing in the Southern Plains or
Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday, but the subsequent evolution of
that feature diverges considerably. The GEM pushes the upper low
east across the Deep South while the GFS and ECMWF have flavors of a
digging trough lifting into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Friday night and Saturday. The GEM solution would keep us mild and
dry, while the GFS or ECMWF trends would suggest a chance for
precipitation. Continued with consensus approach as there was no
strong signal favoring any of the potential solutions.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Dry high pressure was in control of the regions weather. VFR
conditions are expected through the period with the possible
exception of patchy fog tonight. KBRD recently reported 7sm so we
included a mention of fog there over the next few hours. We also
added a mention of LLWS to KINL and KHIB late tonight into Sunday.


DLH  25  12  28  19 /   0   0   0  20
INL  26   8  26   6 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  28   9  28  17 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  25  10  32  23 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  29  14  33  22 /   0   0   0  40


LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this
     evening for LSZ142>144-146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CST Monday
     for LSZ140-141.



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