Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201732 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

At 330 AM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Northland. Areas of
light rain were found in the far west and in northwest Wisconsin.
The area in between was generally dry at this point. Temperatures
ranged from the low to mid 50`s across the north to the lower 60s
across much of the south.

Low pressure is expected to strengthen as it lifts into Upper
Michigan by this evening, although not nearly as much as the NAM
had been advertising for several runs. A consensus solution has
the surface low moving into far eastern Lake Superior by this
evening. Winds will strengthen from the north as the central
pressure of the low drops into the 990 MB range. The NAM actually
drops it into the 980 MB range, but think that may be a bit too
strong. In terms of sensible weather, it looks to be a wet day
across the entire region, due to cyclogenesis and frontogenesis
across the Upper Midwest. Rainfall will likely be highest in
northwest Wisconsin, but widespread rain and isolated
thunderstorms look to be the rule across the entire CWA. With the
clouds and rainfall, temperatures will be held to the 60s for most
areas today.

The rain and clouds will gradually end from west to east and south
to north tonight, allowing high pressure to build into the Northland.
This should help us to salvage half of the weekend, as there
should be a good deal of sunshine on Sunday. It will still be a
bit breezy with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Initially in the extended, high pressure will build into the central
Great Lakes. Minnesota will be on the western side of the high along
the return flow of southwesterly winds and strong WAA. Expect a warm
front to be in the vicinity of the International Border in Minnesota
on Monday extending from a low in southern Alberta. This may bring a
few showers/storms, but uncertain on how far southward the front
will extend. At the moment the NAM is the outlier with the front
bringing showers/storms to much of northern Minnesota, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM keep this activity farther north. Decided to keep low
POPs along the International Border with the front close by for
early Monday morning. Expect warmer temperatures on Monday with
readings ranging from the mid 70s to near 80.

Behind the exiting high pressure a trough will dig and deepen from
Alberta into Montana/Saskatchewan. In response to the height falls
ahead of the trough, an area of low pressure will develop in the
Northern Plains. This will lift another warm front into the
Northland per the latest GFS/GEM for Tuesday. Highs range from the
low to mid 80s. The trailing cold front associated with the system
will move through the CWA on Wednesday as the trough axis moves into
Minnesota. Shower chances will continue on Thursday and Friday with
a broad upper trough over the region. Will see a cooling trend in
temperatures from Wednesday heading into the weekend due to
northwest flow aloft. Readings will range from the upper 60s to low
70s from Thursday to Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

An area of low pressure lifting north-northeast through the Great
Lakes is wrapping cool and humid air into northeast Minnesota and
northwest Minnesota today. Expect periods of showers and MVFR
ceilings and visibility this afternoon and into this evening, but
with lifting and clearing from the northwest resulting in a return
to VFR by late this afternoon or later this evening. The exception
is for KHYR, which will likely see its ceiling lower to IFR this
evening before the lifting and clearing later tonight.

High pressure will gradually build into the region from the west
later tonight and Sunday, bringing clearer skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  52  68  51 /  80  70  10  10
INL  66  41  70  51 /  60  10   0  20
BRD  67  49  70  55 /  70  30   0   0
HYR  64  51  67  50 /  90  80  10  10
ASX  65  56  69  52 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
     Sunday for LSZ121-146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Sunday
     for LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Grochocinski


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