National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDLH 121112
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 12 MPH WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OF ATTENTION ON TEMPERATURES.

THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS SRN MN
THIS MORNING...AND COME CLOSE TO THE SRN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TRACKING EWD ALONG
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DO APPROACH THE NORTHLAND WILL QUICKLY ENCOUNTER A STABLE AND DRY
AIR MASS AND FALL APART. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SITUATION THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY NEED A QUICK UPDATE
AS THIS SRN CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

NORTHERN MN/WI ARE CURRENTLY POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. ONE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN CANADA...AND THE SECOND UPPER S/W MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION...PRODUCING THE ON-
GOING CONVECTION. A WEAK SFC HIGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO...OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER
80S IN NW WI. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALLOWS
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID
70S.

LONG TERM...[THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PCPN COULD LINGER SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THE MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ITS PASSAGE COULD BRING
MORE PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT THEN HELP KEEP THE
MID WEEK PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  53  69  48 /  10   0   0   0
INL  74  50  74  49 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  76  54  75  51 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  80  52  73  48 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  75  47  65  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI