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000
FXUS63 KDLH 220548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SCATTERED LIGHT...OCCASIONALLY MDT
RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT FOG WITH GUSTY NE WINDS. THE LIGHT BAND OF
RAIN CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED FROM 10/11Z
UNTIL AROUND 18/19Z. THE BRD DLH AND HYR TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO
50 KT AROUND 2K FT OVER HYR WILL PRODUCE LLWS WED EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES FOR AREAS ENSHROUDED IN
CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY...AND ALSO LOWERED TEMPS TOMORROW
NIGHT A FEW MORE DEGREES...MAINLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND FAR NWRN
WI. THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB TEMPS ROUGHLY
ZERO TO -2 DEG C...AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING FROST TO FORECAST IF WINDS TREND
DOWNWARD. QPF AMTS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALLOWS FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DZ
AND LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LGT/MDT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 18
HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT REPRIEVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - WEDNESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO
LEANED ON A BLEND.

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE AND NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EXTREME SW MINNESOTA. CLOUDY SKIES COVERED
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WERE CLEAR
SKIES FARTHER NORTH IN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SW MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S IN THE EXTREME SE FORECAST
AREA. MULTIPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW
AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WAS DRY...THERE WERE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL
FALLS THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LATE NIGHT CLEARING AND DRYING
OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
LATE DAY CLEARING...BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUR TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER HUDSON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO THE NORTHLAND. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE HIGH WILL WILL RESULT IN CAA AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS MORNING. THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT THURS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
CENTERS OVER THE ERN ZONES AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ERN ZONES...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TRANSITION
TO WAA OVER WESTERN MN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTORMS
MAINLY FOR SW HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RA
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL
VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  60  36  64 /  10   0   0   0
INL  39  62  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  42  65  38  67 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  38  61  33  66 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  38  54  32  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...TENTINGER