Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 232358
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
658 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper-level over the Minnesota and Iowa border will continue to
drop south through Iowa into Missouri through tonight. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will build into the Northland from the north
and west. While the cool northerly flow across the Northland today
has resulted in widespread and thick cumulus, as well as some
showers, there will be a bit of clearing trend into tonight with
the approaching high pressure. There could be some isolated
rumbles of thunder through early this evening, wherever there are
better pockets of sunshine. Otherwise, the showers should diminish
after sunset.

The cool and humid flow is already causing fog in the city of
Superior, as of the middle of this afternoon. Model guidance
suggests fog will stick around and/or develop over areas downwind
near Lake Superior, such as the Superior and Ashland areas,
through tonight. Some other areas of the Northland could also get
some patchy fog tonight wherever the skies clear better.

Temperatures will primarily drop into the upper 30s and low 40s
tonight. However, areas of the northwest forecast area will see
temperatures drop into the lower and middle 30s. A Frost Advisory
has been issued for those areas.

Warmer and sunnier weather is forecast for Wednesday with high
pressure moving through the Northland. Cool easterly flow from
Lake Superior will keep areas near Lake Superior much cooler than
inland areas. Highs will range from the lower and middle 50s near
the Lake, to the lower and middle 60s well inland.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Upper level and surface ridging cover the forecast area Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, there is a
slight chance of showers reaching the western edge of the area.
This is in response to the closed upper low in southeast
Saskatchewan and the first of many pieces of energy that will
rotate over the region. This closed low will meander into
northwest Ontario Saturday night, before reaching northern Quebec
by Tuesday night. As previously mentioned, pieces of energy will
affect the region throughout with chance pops Friday through
Monday. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon,
Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. Timing of these impulses
is difficult and therefore the chance pops. Max temps will be
slightly above normal through the long range, except right next to
Lake Superior.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

The large upper level low that has affected the Northland for the
past several days will gradually lose its grip on the Northland
weather over the next 24 hours. We will see drier air start to
move in from the north overnight, but mainly on Wednesday. Until
that happens, we will continue to see areas of MVFR and even IFR
CIG`s and VSBY`s. The worst conditions are expected in the KDLH
area as northeast winds bring areas of fog to the head of the
lakes. Largely VFR conditions are expected by mid to late
Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  58  38  61 /  30   0  10  10
INL  34  67  40  68 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  43  64  42  69 /  30   0   0  10
HYR  41  63  39  70 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  40  56  36  61 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ010-011-
     018.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP



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