Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 160534 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SW IOWA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SFC LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FA. AS A RESULT...THE WIND...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS...WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS UP A BIT OVER THE N. COOLER MIN TEMPS WILL OCCUR OVER NW
WI TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND THE EASTERN IRON RANGE. PATCHY FROST
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THESE AREAS WITH MORE FROST IN NW WI. WILL
KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEAK WAA THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MORE
CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION THAN TODAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO JUST N OF THE BORDER. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF RIGHT AT THE BORDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A
CONSENSUS FOR POPS. DID ADD A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY...AND THE BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ILLINOIS.
THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH ONTARIO AND MANITOBA.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY ON. THE COLD FRONT IN
CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN KICK IN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS FAR AS
INDICATING THIS COULD BE A WET AND STORMY PERIOD AND WITH THE TIMING
OF THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...BUT THE MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT
INDICATIONS OF WHERE IDEAS OF WHERE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW FILTERS DOWN COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH/FRONT. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY
OVER THE ARROWHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG TEMPORARILY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1
TO 3 MILES AT THE TWO FAVORED LOCATIONS OF KHIB/KHYR DURING
ROUGHLY THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE..WE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN 050-070 CEILINGS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER..THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. A FAST-MOVING
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 TO 8 HOURS
OF THIS PERIOD..BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KINL THRU 17/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  59  42  59 /  10  20   0  10
INL  41  60  40  64 /  20  20   0  10
BRD  44  68  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  42  66  43  66 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  45  60  42  62 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-
     007>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER






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