Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 292343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT...CONTINUING TOMORROW BUT TAPERING OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON WEST TO EAST OVER NRN MN AND LINGERING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD NWLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PRESENCE
OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL WORK ITS WAY WWD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPPER S/W AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH NRN
MN LATE TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THIS S/W WILL
PHASE WITH A SECONDARY COLD TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY AND ALLOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH WARMING OVER WI ON THURSDAY TO CHANGE ALL THE
PRECIP OVER TO ALL RAIN...BUT KEEP THE WINTRY MIX GOING THROUGH NE
MN. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD SURGE OF AIR PUSHES SWD WILL
SEE THE EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN MN. WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
LIGHT SNOW AMTS ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES TO THE NORTH BEFORE
00Z FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUM THROUGH THUR NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S UNDER THE
BLANKET OF LOW/MID CLOUDS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST TOMORROW
ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR. HIGHS ON THUR WILL ONLY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S TO
THE SOUTH AND SE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL CREATE NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE REGION AND LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION
ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE IN LIQUID FORM EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
END DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. A SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE.
A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S FOR FRIDAY WITH ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO
FAR THIS SEASON SHAPING UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON MONDAY
NIGHT. A PACIFIC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATER TUESDAY AND BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO END THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS TO START THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SCOURS OUT THE MVFR CIGS.
BACKED OFF ON THE PREDOMINATE MENTIONS OF PCPN AND INSTEAD HAVE
USED VCSH MENTION AS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED BY 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  42  27  37 /  40  40  10   0
INL  32  38  21  37 /  30  20  10   0
BRD  34  43  24  38 /  50  30  10   0
HYR  35  44  28  38 /  40  50  20  10
ASX  36  44  29  39 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...GSF






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.