000
FXUS63 KDLH 172002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
302 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM.../NOW - TUESDAY/

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NW MINNESOTA TO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND UNDER
THE HEAVIEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT IN THE
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND IN AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THERE WERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND AREAS
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT SINCE THERE IS
ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OUT THERE...THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES BETTER ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND I CONSIDERED ADDING FOG TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS DUE TO SOME MODELS
INDICATING MUCH BETTER SURFACE HUMIDITY AND WEAK WINDS UP THERE.
HOWEVER...I AM NOT CONVINCED OF FOG AT THIS POINT. THE EVENING
SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE FOG POTENTIAL. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE I AM
FORECASTING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD GET COLDER DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY. EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND THE 60S FOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE DURING THE DAY WED AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND COMBINES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL LIKELY SEE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE
RAPIDLY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG SURGE OF WARM
MOIST AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE S/SW. THE INTERACTION OF A WEAK
FRONT AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WED
NIGHT...AND AGAIN THUR AFTERNOON. A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LIKELY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE CHANCES OF STRONG
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH NUMEROUS OUTDOOR SUMMER
ACTIVITIES GOING ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SUMMER-LIKE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY FROM BRD TO JUST WEST
OF HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUD CANOPY WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE N/NE AND CLEARS SKIES OUT BY THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  69  49  75 /  10  10   0  30
INL  44  74  49  79 /  10   0  10  40
BRD  47  73  54  78 /  40  10   0  30
HYR  42  74  47  78 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  37  68  45  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER