Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 220911
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
411 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
AROUND THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US DEFINED BY A DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK EMBEDDED S/W TRACKING SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
THAT COULD CLIP EXTREME NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW FLURRIES. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE TWO DISTURBANCES
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND CRANE LAKE TO TWO
HARBORS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE SUNNY TODAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
W/SW THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND SRN/SWRN MN TONIGHT AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH BY EARLY WED MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD AND AROUND THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STORM...AS
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF THE
MODELS...WITH GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHICH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT HAS SET UP FROM THERE TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPS FROM NEAR THE LOW TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MINNESOTA...AT FIRST JUST AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO CHANCE CATEGORY...EVEN AS
RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL
COMPLICATION IS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT DOES NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED FOR THE BORDERLAND...EVEN
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM ON
THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
THE 850MB LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
MOVE IN ALOFT...AND BEGINNING A SHIFT BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME BACK AND FORTH ON
THE PRECIPITATION TYPES.  SINCE WE ARE STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT ON
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ON SPECIFICS...BUT IT
DOES CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A MIXTURE OF COLD RAIN AND WET SLOPPY
SNOW.  HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
NOW...BUT SMALL CHANGES IN THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
PTYPE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE DRY AND COOL AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.  HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

CEILINGS FROM 3500-4500 FEET COVERED AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KINL TO KPBH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE PER
THE LATEST RAP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH AND WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT WILL VEER TO MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
BY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  33  45  34 /   0   0  30  80
INL  53  31  54  36 /   0   0  10  70
BRD  59  39  50  41 /   0  10  70  70
HYR  54  31  53  38 /   0   0  30  80
ASX  47  28  49  36 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DTM






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