Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 221736
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
Issued by National Weather Service GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tweaked sky, weather and wind for today. Thunderstorms are
expected over central and southern MN and central and southern
WI. Storms may brush the far southern zones for today. No other
changes at this update.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The Northland will be in a cool weather pattern over the weekend
into Monday. High temperatures will only be in the low to middle
60s, about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than seasonal normal. A few days
of northwest flow and passing shortwaves and upper troughs will mean
periods of showers and weak storms, especially during peak heating.
The strength of the solar heating is quite strong for this time of
the year. Combine that heating of the surface with the cool air, and
it will not be difficult to develop instability for scattered to
broken afternoon and early evening cumulus and light showers. The
GFS and NAM most unstable CAPE also suggest there may be enough
instability for rumbles of thunder in the afternoon. While large-
scale forcing does not look particularly good for generating much
thunder, those shortwaves would help generate thunder, and there are
model differences in the track and timing of the waves at this
point. Think it best to just maintain a low chance of thunder for
the afternoon and early evening hours of both Saturday and Sunday.
Drier air will likely move into the Northland Monday as high
pressure approaches from the west, but there could be enough
moisture to get light showers and storms over the eastern Arrowhead
and the far southeast forecast area in northwest Wisconsin. The
drier air will mean more sunshine for Monday, so temperatures will
at least rebound to highs closer to 70 degrees.

High pressure will likely move through the Northland Monday night
and/or Tuesday, providing a period of clear skies. Temperatures
should warm back up to near seasonal temperatures in the middle 70s.
Southerly return flow will then set up late Tuesday into Wednesday
when an upper-level ridge moves into the region and low pressure
continues to approach from the west. Both the GFS and European
indicate a potential wet and stormy period around this time, or
shortly after. However, the GFS is significantly faster than the
European, with showers and storms moving into the Northland
Tuesday night. The European holds it off until Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Essentially VFR conditions were across the area. However showers
and thunder were over the far southern area or the counties of
Washburn, Sawyer, and Price where MVFR conditions are due to
lower visibilities in rain. Expect VFR conditions today and this
evening across the area except in the far southern zones. MVFR
conditions in the south will shift south and east this afternoon
and evening. Then MVFR cigs will move out of Canada and into the
area late tonight and cover about the northwest half of the area
by 18Z Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  52  66  48 /  10  20  20  10
INL  73  50  62  47 /  20  30  40  40
BRD  75  53  65  47 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  73  53  69  48 /  50  20  20  10
ASX  74  54  69  50 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO DLH
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...WFO DLH



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