Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281135
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A stacked low over Lake Superior is finally departing, moving
south/southeast towards the Ohio Valley, which will result in
decreasing chances for rain and gradually clearing skies tonight into
Thursday. Temperatures will be on a warming trend for highs - in the
mid 50s to near 60 today, upper 50s to mid 60s Thursday - with
tonight the coolest night of the week as skies clear out and lows
fall into the upper 30s to low 40s, coolest across north-central
Minnesota.

On the synoptic scale the stubborn upper low is finally exiting
stage-right, but not without another cloudy day across the
Northland. Mid and low-level moisture looks to continue to wrap
around the low resulting in mostly cloudy skies today, but less wind
today compared to the breezy past two days. Highs will be warmer as
the coolest air aloft departs to the east and some breaks in the
clouds are possible. Across northwest Wisconsin and especially east
of the Bayfield peninsula showers/sprinkles will continue to be
possible through the day. Late today into tonight a mid-level ridge
will build in from the west aloft and a surface high centered near
Lake of the Woods builds leading to clearing skies and calm
conditions. Fog/stratus will be possible towards Thursday morning,
mainly across inland areas of northwest Wisconsin where the best
leftover boundary layer moisture will be located. If skies clear
earlier than anticipated some parts of northern Minnesota could
approach the mid 30s, but given the cloud coverage upstream do not
anticipate any kind of widespread frost - most locations will have
lows in the 40s with the coolest spots in the upper 30s. Warmer with
more sun on Thursday as high pressure continues to build in from the
west. Most of the warmth can be attributed to the solar heating as
temps aloft Thursday will be about the same as today (850mb temps
around +3 to +6C).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

High pressure will initially nudge its way into the Upper Midwest
from Ontario as a cutoff low rotates along the Ohio River Valley.
This will bring dry and quiet weather for Friday. Low temperatures
will be in the 40s Thursday night. High temperatures on Friday will
be in the mid to upper 60s.

Cloud cover will increase on Saturday, mainly across NW WI, as the
cutoff low retrogrades from the Ohio River Valley into the central
Great Lakes. Expect the high to continue nudging into NE MN, which
should keep the clouds at bay. Due to the cutoff, increased to
chance POPs across far eastern portions on NW WI. Both the
GFS/ECWMF/GEM are in good agreement with the cutoff pushing
northeastward into the central/eastern Great Lakes. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s with low temperatures in the
40s throughout the Northland.

After Sunday, the GFS/ECMWF/GEM synoptically are a little different
in kicking out the cutoff system with the GFS/GEM being more
progressive than the ECMWF. This system will eventually move into the
Northeast US while a trough digs and deepens across the Western half
of the US. Ahead of the trough, an area of low pressure will develop
in the Plains. This will bring the next chance of showers/storms for
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A cutoff low will gradually slide southeastward from the central
Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley by this evening. Behind
the cutoff, high pressure will build into the region from central
Canada. This will bring MVFR/IFR ceilings, which will gradually
improve to VFR as drier air advects into the region scattering
clouds out, per the latest NAM/GFS. Expect gusty winds to diminish
at KDLH/KHYR/KHIB as the day progresses due to the relaxing of
the pressure gradient.

Expect radiation fog to develop late tonight due to clear skies,
light winds and recent precipitation. This is suggested by the
latest NAMMOS/GFSMOS at all locations except for KINL. Opted to
keep all sites in MVFR visibilities except for KHYR where IFR or
lower is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  45  60  45 /   0   0   0   0
INL  58  42  61  41 /   0  10   0   0
BRD  61  42  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  59  45  63  43 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  58  48  61  45 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL


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