Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230545
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Showers and storms over northwest Wisconsin have ended or exited
the area. A mostly clear sky covers the rest of the area with the
exception of clouds from eastern St. Louis county, through the
Arrowhead. These clouds will diminish through the night. Latest
short term hires models no longer point toward any storm
development overnight and have removed.

UPDATE Issued at 453 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Added some isolated thunderstorms to Ashland, Iron and Price
counties until 23Z. Pea size hail was reported in Gile with a
quick 0.09 inches of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Summary: An area of low pressure in the Dakotas will continue to
pump warm air into the Northland from the south through Tuesday,
with the warming trend culminating in temperatures about 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal normals Tuesday afternoon.

Increasing heights from an approaching upper level ridge tonight
will help suppress convection, and most models keep the Northland
dry despite the strong low-level jet (30 to 50 knots) that will
develop tonight with the elevated warm front lifting into the
Northland. However, the GFS continues to indicate pcpn later
tonight, primarily for areas near and north of the elevated warm
front across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area (near
and north of Highway 2). The GFS has been fairly consistent for
several runs over the past few days. Therefore, although most
models are dry, do not feel comfortable discounting the GFS. Held
onto very low chances of elevated showers and thunderstorms.

The overnight southerly winds will discourage cooling, so leaned
on the warmer model guidance, such as the ECMWF, GFS, and SREF.
Overnight lows will likely be in the lower 60s. This will give the
Northland a good start to warming up Tuesday. Once again, gusty
southerly flow will develop across the region ahead of the
approaching low pressure, and its cold front, from the west. The
850 hpa temperatures will climb to about 18 to 22 degrees Celsius,
and a strong cap from the nose of warm air will help suppress
cloud cover and convection. The sunshine will further help the
warming. Leaned on the warmer model guidance, such as the GFS.
Highs should range from the lower 80s in the east to the
middle/upper 80s across central to north central Minnesota. Expect
widespread afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph, but may need to
increase to 30 mph once more high-resolution, short-term model
guidance becomes available.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A chance for showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
cold front moves from west to east across the upper Midwest, with
cooler and drier conditions settling in for Thursday. A gradual
return to warmer conditions this weekend with at least a chance
for showers and storms through much of the weekend.

On the synoptic scale a once-mature cyclone across the Canadian
Rockies will be weakening as it moves east towards the Canadian
Prairie, with another weak low developing ahead of the stacked
low. This new developing low will be centered over southeast
Manitoba by Tuesday night, gradually lifting east towards
northwest Ontario Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead and along the
cold front the south- southwesterly flow at low levels will advect
warm and moist air ahead of the front, with dew points in the mid
60s ahead of the front on Wednesday and highs in the upper 70s to
near 80. Precipitation will likely be scattered in nature as the
best large- scale forcing will be delayed behind the cold front.
Not expecting any widespread severe storms, but a few stronger
storms cannot be ruled out - mainly those coming in from the west
Tuesday night, but generally it seems like wind profiles will not
be favorable to sustain severe storms.

Behind the cold front Wednesday night skies clear out as an area
of high pressure builds in across the northern and central Plains.
850mb temps will fall to 5-10C on Thursday resulting in a very
comfortable day. Lows Wednesday night in the low to mid 50s, with
a few of the usual cool spots possibly falling into the upper 40s.
Highs Wednesday in the mid 60s to near 70, with a low chance for a
shower/sprinkle across the international border. Lows Thursday
night in the mid to upper 40s, except near Lake Superior and
larger inland lakes.

Over the weekend the area of high pressure moves northeast across
the Great Lakes with southwesterly flow taking hold again across
the upper Midwest. This will result in a warming trend and an
environment ripe for diurnal convection, with showers and storms
possible each day. The pattern becomes organized early next week
as an upper low ejects out of the Colorado Rockies into the
central/northern Plains, with a continued chance for showers and
storms as the warm front associated with the surface low that
develops approaches the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR through the forecast. Expect some LLWS at all sites but INL
until 12Z as a low level jet affects MN. Thunderstorms have
developed over eastern North Dakota within the low level jet which
may also spread east to affect KBRD and KINL generally in the
09z- 14z time range, but confidence in their arrival is not high
enough and have left out for now. After 14z Gusty surface winds
will develop. A cold front will reach northwest MN toward the end
of the forecast period. Have a VCSH mention at INL at 02Z to
account for any activity that forms ahead of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  79  53  68 /  40  40   0  10
INL  63  77  53  67 /  60  20  20  30
BRD  64  76  54  70 /  50  20   0  10
HYR  64  79  54  68 /  50  40  10  10
ASX  66  81  57  70 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE



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