Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WE DECREASED SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT HELD ONTO OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR WOULD SUGGEST THE PRECIP IS
SPOTTY.

WE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CLEARING OUTSIDE OF SOME POCKETS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS EARLY THIS EVENING TO MATCH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...MAINLY INCREASING THEM EARLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL TONIGHT...AND ANY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY WILL
BECOME ALL SNOW OR FLURRIES BY MIDNIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXITING TO THE SOUTH/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SLIDING
ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS PASSING
THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO FORM AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND
OVER N-CENTRAL WI. AREAS IN BETWEEN...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 53 AND
I-35 CORRIDORS COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON THE
THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DECREASE.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAPID
DRYING ALOFT...COOLING IN THE NEAR-SFC LAYER...AND WEAK WAA
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS. AS THIS MODIFICATION OCCURS ANY LIQUID
PRECIP WILL BECOME FROZEN...WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING OVER TO
FLURRIES. AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT A
WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A FEW PEAKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE MORE CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEK...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP LIGHT SNOW. THE
FIRST CLIPPER WILL COME WEDNESDAY...AND THE SECOND ONE LATE THIS
WEEK. THERE IS MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF
THE SECOND CLIPPER THAN THE FIRST CLIPPER.

A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
LATE TUESDAY...AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
THERE WILL BE A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY. THIS BAND WILL PRIMARILY BE
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND BROAD UPWARD
MOTION. MOST OF THE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. THE FAR NORTHERN ARROWHEAD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MORE THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

COLD NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLDER WEATHER.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS HAS A MUCH SLOWER AND
STRONGER CLIPPER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. LEANED ON THE ECMWF AND GEM
FOR THE FORECAST...WHICH BRING THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS DOES
NOT BRING THE SNOW THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR WITH A FEW IFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE LITTLE
PRECIP LEFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WE EXPECT THAT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WHEN AND IF THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED. THE LATEST NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PUSH OFF THE CHANGE FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR. WE WILL DELAY THIS
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  32  21  32 /  20   0  10  20
INL  18  32  24  31 /  10   0  10  50
BRD  24  34  25  34 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  19  32  20  33 /  50   0   0  10
ASX  22  33  21  34 /  40  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE





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