Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250527
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1227 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Isolated/scattered showers have developed further south this
evening and have expanded POPs through the evening hours. A rumble
of thunder will be possible as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A low over far northwest Ontario will shift east to James Bay by
Monday morning. It`s associated upper level trough will shift east
from the Northern Plains to the Northland late this afternoon and
this evening. The synoptic lift provided by the trough could
develop scattered showers and isolated storms across far northern
Minnesota late this afternoon through this evening amidst the well
mixed, breezy west-northwest flow. Any storms will likely be
relatively weak.

There will be clearing overnight as surface high pressure shifts
from the Central/Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Light
west-northwest flow over the Northland overnight should be just
enough to stave off the threat of fog, and help prevent dramatic
cooling overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and
low 60s.

Monday looks mostly sunny with lighter west-northwest flow. Highs
will primarily be in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The upper air pattern in the extended period will start out
fairly zonal with a big ridge of high pressure over the southern
tier of the U. S. with a broad trof across much of Canada and into
the Gulf of Alaska. It`s this trofiness that will be the
Northland`s weather maker for the next week. Tuesday will be a
change with increasing dewpoints as the surface high slides
southeast and return flow sets up. A little dip in the atmospheric
flow will result in a vorticity maxima and with the increasing
humidity and temperature advection associated with the return flow
we will see chances of storms. The showers and storms should
begin across northern MN where the initial instability and
strongest advection will take place...then this area will slide
south during the afternoon as the surface high moves into northern
IL and IN. The rest of the week will be dominated by the upper
trof with increasing humidity and chances of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The showers have ended as the boundary cooled and the shortwave
exits the region. High pressure will affect most of the Northland
through Monday and provide VFR conditions. There could be some brief
patchy fog tonight reducing vsbys to IFR.

As the high move south and east of the region Monday night, warm air
advection and a surface boundary will lead to increasing clouds
Monday evening over portions of the Northland. There will also be a
chance for showers and storms after 06Z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  83  63  78 /  10  40  50  40
INL  59  83  59  80 /  10  30  20  20
BRD  63  84  64  80 /  10  30  50  40
HYR  58  85  62  81 /   0  30  50  40
ASX  61  85  64  80 /   0  40  40  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...Melde



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