Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280604
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
104 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS IS UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..TEMPS HAVE FALLEN RATHER RAPIDLY IN MOST
AREAS..BUT ESPECIALLY UP NORTH WHERE READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR 50
DEGREES AS OF 9 PM. THE CLOSING TO SATURATION AND FORMATION OF
AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON THE
RAPID TEMP FALL..WITH A MORE SUBDUED GLIDE TO NEAR OUR CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS IN ORDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE HAVE MADE THE
STANDARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ADJUST THE VARIOUS GRID ELEMENTS TOWARD
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS..BUT
OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE TWO
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND FOR COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT..AND ALSO TO DELAY THE ONSET TIMES FOR THE BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP TOMORROW BY 3-6 HOURS..ALSO IN LINE WITH NEW CONSENSUS
MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH A
PROGRESSIVE MID LVL RIDGE. EXTENSIVE AREA OF SCT/BKN CU DEVELOPED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN CWA WHERE A
925/850 MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS FROM PREVIOUS FRONTAL BDRY. EXPECT A
DISSIPATION OF THIS CLOUD FIELD ONCE DIURNAL WARMING DECREASES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO ERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER DECOUPLED BDRY LYR. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...THIS TIME OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS.

TOMORROW...ACTIVE WX PATTERN ORGANIZES OVER THE CTRL PLAINS AS
SIGNIFICANT MID LVL TROF ADVECTS EAST INTO NEB/KS. A LLJ IMPINGING
ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL BDRY WILL SETUP A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 85H MSTR TRANSPORT DOES
INCREASE OVER THE CWA...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
BDRY LYR FLOW COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRIER AIR WILL MAINTAIN A
WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIMITED
INSTABILITY FCST...WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF CLOUD PHYSICS THUNDER
PARAMETER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AFTER A COUPLE DRY DAYS...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENTERING A PATTERN
THAT IS MORE UNSETTLED AND WET. THERE ARE SOME PRETTY SERIOUS MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO MN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THE ECMWF AND NAM GENERALLY KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE TWIN PORTS BEING
ON THE EDGE OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND GEM
BRING A BIG BATCH OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL THE ECMWF AND
NAM SOLUTIONS MAKE THE MOST SENSE...AND HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN TREND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS NORTHERN MN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT LIGHTER QPF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES LOOK TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION A WARRANT OF A SLIGHT/CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. A
FAIRLY MAJOR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. A NORTH TO SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY AND AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. REDUCED
VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BY SUNRISE.
HIB IS EXPECTED TO SEE FLUCTUATING CATEGORIES BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
TONIGHT...LARGELY DETERMINED BY WHETHER WINDS ARE CALM OR LIGHT AT
EACH OBSERVATION TIME. BRIEF EXCURSIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BRD AND HYR...WHILE DLH
REMAINS VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND ALL AIRPORTS
WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 5-8 KNOT
RANGE FROM SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TO THE BRD
VICINITY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE TOWARD HYR/HIB/DLH
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  70  58  69 /  40  20  30  20
INL  55  74  51  73 /  10  40  20  10
BRD  59  76  57  75 /  20  20  30  20
HYR  59  73  56  73 /  60  30  30  20
ASX  58  69  57  70 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...HUYCK






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