Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
903
FXUS63 KDLH 082120
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHLAND...PRODUCING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LOW VFR. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONTINUE LONGER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND EVEN LONGER IN THE SNOWBELT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE WITH A COLD AIRMASS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF
MVFR CEILINGS THAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.