Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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704
FXUS63 KDLH 182333
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LINGERING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN INCOMING COLD AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD FROM THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD INTO ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION
THIS PAST WEEKEND IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE COLD AIR MIXING IN ALLOWING FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL. THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS ARE ALSO COMBINING
WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE
DEEP SYSTEM TO THE EAST INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN
MN. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS
NEAR OR EXCEEDING 30 MPH. IN CASE YOU FORGOT WHAT FALL FEELS LIKE.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT WILL BE DRYING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N/NW.

THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED COLDER LOCATIONS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY
IF CLOUDS MIX OUT OVER N-CENTRAL MN BEFORE SUNRISE TUE MORNING.
EXPECTING WEAK LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT WITH ONLY
LIGHT AMTS ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE COLD AIR
MASS STILL IN PLACE ONLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
WILL HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LEANED ON THE COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
SINCE THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE FEW CLOUDS AND NO PCPN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. THE NW FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. LIGHT SW TO W WINDS ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
INCREASE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY TO A COUPLE DEGREES MORE
THAN THURSDAY. THINK THE SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
THURSDAY...SO INCREASED THE FRIDAY FORECAST A BIT. THE GFS
EXTENDED MOS CAME IN WITH A HIGH OF 68 FOR FRIDAY. AVOIDED
INCREASING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA THAT MUCH
BECAUSE THE LIGHT WIND FLOW REGIME COULD RESULT IN A SUBTLE LAKE
BREEZE.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
THE ELEVATED 850 HPA WARM FRONT...FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. MAINTAINED LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY...AND IF SO...THE COOL FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD
SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER TO WELL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE ENORMOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHLAND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL IT WILL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  52  34  63 /  20   0   0   0
INL  29  52  29  66 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  33  54  34  65 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  32  52  29  64 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  32  52  32  62 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP






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