Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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233
FXUS63 KDLH 241741
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

At 330 AM, skies were cloudy across the Northland. Rain showers
continued across the northern tier of counties...essentially north
of the Iron Range. Temperatures were generally in the 50`s,
although there were a few locations around 60 degrees.

The focus for today will be cloud cover and resolving any chance
of precipitation. Strong warm air advection will continue to push
into the Northland as the day wears on. The main forcing for
precipitation will push into south central Canada this morning,
with a break in the precipitation for most areas for the remainder
of the day. The models are hinting at the development of some
drizzle or spotty rain showers, especially near Lake Superior
where moist easterly flow will persist throughout the day.

Later today, we should see the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the far western portions of the CWA. The best
chance of precipitation will move in tonight.

Tonight is shaping up to be a very wet night, as precipitable
water values approach 2 inches across the Northland tonight. We
could see some heavy rainfall across the region overnight, as an
area of widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms moves eastward
ahead of the cold front that will move in on Sunday. There may be
a bit of a break in the precipitation behind the cold front, but
showers will quickly move in as the day wears on. Winds will
become gusty from west to east on Sunday as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A cool, wet, and windy end to the weekend into the beginning of the
work week, but temperatures rebound to above normal and dry
conditions prevail mid to late week. Possibly flirting with the mid
30s Tuesday night (usual cold spots maybe near freezing) but that`s
as cold as it gets through the beginning of October. It`s been a
mild September - just two below-normal days at DLH so far - and this
trend of mild temperatures looks to continue for the foreseeable
future per CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks.

On the synoptic scale a stacked low over southern Canada will dive
southeast towards the upper Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday
with an associated cold front stretching across much of North
America. By 00z Monday (Sunday 7pm CDT) the cold front will be
through much of the Northland, but as cooler air moves in aloft
chances for showers will linger across the region. The best chance
for rain Sunday night will be across north-central Minnesota and
especially along the international border due to an ample supply of
deep layer moisture associated with the stacked low combined with a
fairly strong LLJ (around 50 knots). This rain will continue through
Monday and possibly into Tuesday across the MN Arrowhead as the
stacked low lingers North of Superior through Tuesday. A broad mid-
level ridge builds in across the Plains Wednesday with a warmer and
drier air mass moving in through at least the end of the work week.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Cloudy, cool, and windy with rain
showers across the MN Arrowhead likely, a chance elsewhere Sunday
night into Monday. Highs in the 50s Monday, upper 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday. Lows in the upper 40s Sunday night. Winds strongest Monday
afternoon with northwest winds 15-20mph and gusts approaching 40mph.
Skies clear out from west to east Tuesday, through clouds may linger
across the tip of the Arrowhead depending on how slow the upper low
exits to the east.

Tuesday night through Friday...Clear skies and a warming trend.
Temperatures fall to the 30s Tuesday night across areas away from
Lake Superior, but rebound with highs in the mid to upper 60s
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday - near 70 in a few spots! While far
from abnormal, these temperatures are about ten degrees above normal
for late September.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The main concerns with the latest set of TAFs is the lingering
stratus across the region and thunderstorm potential late tonight.
Stratus is firmly in place across the region with increasing
southerly low level moisture. Decided to remain pessimistic and
keep ceilings LIFR to MVFR through the forecast as suggested by
the latest NAM/RAP/HRRR guidance. Due to onshore flow from Lake
Superior expect stratus and fog to keep DLH visibilities to
IFR/MVFR, but lower will be possible.

Late tonight will see showers and thunderstorms spread into the
forecast area from west to east. Unsure at this point on how
widespread thunderstorm activity will be, but confident showers
will around. Tried to pin point best timing of showers and
combined with VCTS due to uncertainty on how widespread storms
will be. Expect visibility drops to IFR/LIFR in the heavier
showers/storms, but held off from LIFR visibility due to timing
uncertainty. Will gradually see improvement to MVFR at
KDLH/KBRD/KHIB once the cold front passes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  57  68  49 /  20  90  50  50
INL  68  60  65  48 /  30  80  70  70
BRD  70  59  64  48 /  40  90  20  40
HYR  67  59  69  49 /  20  90  70  50
ASX  69  57  72  52 /  20  70  70  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL



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