Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260046
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION 645 PM CST AT BOTTOM

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.  A POTENT SNOW
PRODUCER MISSED OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WE`LL EXPERIENCE THE ARCTIC AIR POURING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MID DAY
TOMORROW. THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE PLACE TO NOT ONLY BE
QUITE COLD...BUT HAVE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SOME WIND /ALBEIT LIGHT AT TIMES/ THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BELOW ZERO...WIND
CHILL VALUES COLDER THAN -25F WILL BE ACHIEVED.

OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN IRON AND ASHLAND
COUNTIES.  ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL BE HELD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT WITH ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE FA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE SURFACE
HIGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD IOWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  IT WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IT`S INFLUENCE WILL STILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE FA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE...WITH THE SUB TROPICAL JET PUSHING
NORTH.  THIS WOULD INDICATED THE STORM TRACK WILL ALSO BE PUSHED
NORTH AND THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM WHERE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA AS
THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH IOWA TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH
AS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

THE NEXT AND BETTER OPPORTUNITY COMES TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS
AND EC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN A DECENT STORM COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION WELL
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH SET UP.  SO...CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT BEING 6
DAYS AWAY...THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT
120-250. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -13   6 -10  11 /   0   0   0   0
INL -23   5 -18  10 /   0   0   0   0
BRD -12   7 -13  13 /   0   0   0   0
HYR -14   8 -16  12 /   0   0   0   0
ASX -12   7  -6  12 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...STEWART





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