Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 171018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
418 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ARE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE MEAN LOW LEVEL
FLOW...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN EAST OF
IRONWOOD.  A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO HAS PRODUCED
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA...THOUGH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS TURNED
WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY EAST OF ASHLAND.  ALL THE CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
TODAY...THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN A BIT
FARTHER NORTH...BRINGING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO IRON...ASHLAND AND EVEN BAYFIELD COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY EVEN AS MUCH
AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY.  OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...FROM 6 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. 4 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BAYFIELD COUNTY AS WELL AS THE BANDS SHOULD ALSO DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY.  THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF THE SNOW NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS WELL. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND ADVISORY THAT ARE TAKING EFFECT THIS
MORNING, UPSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WITH EACH
SHOWER. EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS...
THOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WINDS
TURNING MORE WESTERLY ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN ALOFT
SHOULD DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...OR AT
LEAST CAUSE THEM TO AFFECT AREAS FARTHER EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THUS...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME OF 18Z TUESDAY FOR THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
HEADLINES.  FLURRIES SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL JUST BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS A FRESH
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...RANGING IN THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS.  LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
RANGE AGAIN AS WELL.  THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER...AND IF WE
WERE TO CLEAR OUT WE WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE GIST...THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES COULD GET ADDITIONAL SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CLIPPER ORIGINATING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL DIVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD WEATHER. A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD
SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD WNW FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NW WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
COUNTY COULD GET MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT TIME...ABOUT
A FEW INCHES OR SO. THE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE LAKE...ABOUT 300
DEGREES OR WNW...DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR IRON
COUNTY...BUT IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SUGGEST 320 OR 330 DEGREES...THEN
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A TEXAS HOOKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILE...COULD
BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL US OR NORTHERN MEXICO
SATURDAY. THIS COULD DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS...WHICH COULD LIFT AND DEEPEN ON A TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT COULD TAP INTO
A LOT OF GULF OF MOISTURE FLOW AND GIVE IT AMPLE AMMUNITION TO DUMP
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE CURRENT TRACKS SUGGEST NW
WISCONSIN WOULD BE MORE AFFECTED THAN NE MINNESOTA. DEPENDING ON THE
THERMAL PROFILE...THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW...OR BOTH.
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL NEED EXTRA ATTENTION OVER THE COMING DAYS.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 09Z. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WERE
FOUND WITH SOME ISOLD -SHSN. CIGS WERE PRIMARILY VFR WITH MVFR IN
THE VCNTY OF -SHSN. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE MIX OF VFR/MVFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16   4  16   7 /  40  20   0  30
INL  14   2  18   6 /  40  30  20  40
BRD  15   0  15   7 /  30  10   0  30
HYR  15   2  16   4 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  19   7  19   8 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140-141-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







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