000
FXUS63 KDLH 160001
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BUT
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - TONIGHT/

THE FOCUS REMAINS THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
VERY DRY HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
MOST OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES DUE TO THE
LARGE GERMANN ROAD FIRE IN NW WISCONSIN.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE LATEST HRRR/NAM12/SREF MODELS SUGGESTED THIS PCPN
EARLIER...AND I MAINTAINED THE HOURLY TIMING OF THE SCATTERED
PCPN THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE CURRENT LIGHT SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SPREAD AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. I KEPT THE FORECAST AS
SCATTERED SPRINKLES BECAUSE MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE. THERE IS A REMOTE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS
THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
THE CAPE ON SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS BEEN CONSISENTLY VERY MINIMAL
AROUND 100 J/KG OR LESS...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN
THIS WAY. NONETHELESS...THERE COULD BE A STRAY STORM.

LATE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM. THIS...AND
HUMIDITY RECOVERY...WILL HELP THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY - TUESDAY/

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST AND SRN ROCKIES
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHRT WVS WILL EJECT
EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTERACT WITH THE WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH AXIS ON SAT AND SUN...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LOW THEN BECOMES CLOSED AND SOMEWHAT
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A WATCH ON THE TRENDS OF THIS PATTERN. A PERSISTENT E/NE WIND AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
RATHER CHILLY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WHILE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR... INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CU-FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. WINDS
COULD BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY AROUND HEAVIER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  44  57 /  10   0  10  20
INL  39  70  45  67 /  10   0  10  30
BRD  48  76  51  68 /  10  10  20  50
HYR  44  75  47  67 /  10   0  10  30
ASX  43  65  42  61 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP