Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 230837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

CLOUDY AND JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TODAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY TODAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...PROVIDING WEAK
BROAD-SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY CAUSING SOME CLEARING...THOUGH AS QUICKLY AS SKIES MAY CLEAR
ON MONDAY NIGHT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. ON TUESDAY A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF BREEZY WINDS AND WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

TODAY...GENERALLY SEASONABLE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAIN CONCERN
IS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY ANYWHERE WEST OF HIGHWAY 53. LATEST MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND TRAVEL TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TODAY...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW WEAK SHOWERS.
PRECIP TYPE WILL PROBABLY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DUE TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION GOING ON AT LOW LEVELS. EARLY MORNING SHORT- RANGE
CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE PLACES THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
FROM LEECH LAKE TO GRAND RAPIDS AND SOUTH INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 30S
AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS /ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN/ TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY...MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH. EASTERLY WINDS
OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S INLAND...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NEAR THE LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE LONG RANGE. PAIR OF SFC LOWS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ONE IN NW MN AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL BE CONNECTED BY AN UPPER TROF WITH PLENTY
OF FORCING BETWEEN THEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL COVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DRY TUESDAY EVENING. PCPN WILL OCCUR
FARTHER SOUTH AS THE SFC LOWS MAKE THEIR MOVE. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR PERSISTS.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...COLD AIR ARRIVES AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST.
THE LOW LEVELS COOL AND THE PTYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THIS IS ONLY
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND HAS BEEN IGNORED. THE LAKE MICHIGAN LOW
MOVES WELL EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE NW MN LOW CENTER TO BECOME
THE PREDOMINATE ONE. IT WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN MN AS AN UPPER LONG
WAVE TROF BEGINS TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. THE PTYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW IN
THE MORNING UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING WARMS THE LOW LAYERS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL SNOW
REMAINING OVER THE ARROWHEAD. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS THE AREA
PUSHING THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER AS THE GFS HANGS A TROF BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN HIGH PRESSURE. USED A
BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN LOW POPS AND LIGHT SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINOR AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED AWAY WITH THE SFC LOW. A
COLD NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR FROM THE ARRIVING HIGH
WILL AFFECT SNOW TOTALS WHICH SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE HIGH SETTLES IN
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FINDS THE AREA
AFFECTED BY THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND ITS
RESULTANT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE SNOW HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY
MORNING THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IN SPOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
ALSO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SPOTS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA
CLOSER TO A DEPARTING RIDGE AND DRIER AIR. WE STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...WE
HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW OR A MIX AT KHIB/KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  25  43  30 /  10  10   0  90
INL  43  30  46  31 /  10  10   0  40
BRD  39  26  45  31 /  10  10  10  90
HYR  42  22  47  30 /   0   0   0 100
ASX  42  23  47  31 /   0   0   0  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.