000
FXUS63 KDLH 222039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BECOMING THE SOURCE FOR MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES.

A NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING CAA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FCST WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND INTO NRN WI
WHERE H85 TEMPS REACH NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO
KEEP TEMPS MODERATED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH DEW PTS UPSTREAM IN
THE 20S TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IF WINDS GO CALM
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL FURTHER.

THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6 KFT THURSDAY. DEW POINTS/RH WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RH REACHING THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH...15-20 PERCENT IN SPOTS...WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD ZONES AND ACROSS NORTHERN WIS. WINDS THURSDAY
WILL BE GUSTY...MAINLY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING AFTER THE
NOON HOUR AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THE IN THE 60S. COOLER READINGS WILL BE
FOUND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP KEEP
THE NORTHLAND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL SEE FROST AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE...SO IT MAY BE TIME TO PULL IN THOSE POTTED PLANTS. I DID NOT
PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OUR OFFICE IS NOT ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN THERE
SHOULD EB WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES COVER MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE KINL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS OR VSBYS FROM -RA AND BR...AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE CIGS LIFT AND THEN CLEAR OUT. EXPECT NE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KDLH DUE THE STRONG WINDS COMING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  30  62  30  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  39  64  36  67 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  36  62  27  68 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  37  54  31  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI