Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 262040
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  20  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  20  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 /  90  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





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