Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210536 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY BRINGING A LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH SOME STRONG
WINDS THIS EVENING..AND THEN LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS INTO
MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER NW WISCONSIN.

INSTABILITY IS MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE THAT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 245 PM.
HOWEVER..CAPE <= 1000 J/KG WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING..DESPITE DECENT SHEAR/FLOW AND
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS..WITH PERHAPS A STORM OF TWO GETTING STRONG ENOUGH FOR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.

INITIAL LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z
AFTER OUTRUNNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE EAST..BY
AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SUSTAINED ASCENT
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WHILE THUNDER CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME..THERE SHOULD STILL BE DECENT COVERAGE OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING..ESP OVER NW WISCONSIN.

LINGERING RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY..WITH
DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES TO
AROUND 70.

A SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND...THEN OVER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...COVERAGE AND PRECIP INTENSITY BOTH LOOK TO BE LIMITED. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS FRIDAY RISING
TO 70 TO 75 FOR MOST AREAS. WE HAVE SOME SMALL POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE MVFR WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AFTER
18Z MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  67  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
INL  42  69  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  69  47  71 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  40  66  45  70 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  67  48  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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