Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281519 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1019 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESTOA EARLIER THAN
THAN PERVIOUSLY FORECAST. CLOUD TOPS OF INCOMING MCS STILL
COOLING...SO EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A VARIETY OF CIGS/VSBYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. AREAS OF BR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL SPOTS WHILE INL/HYR ARE VFR.
EXPECT THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO AFFECT HIB/INL WITH
APPROACHING STORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. NO RAIN ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DEPART AFTER 09Z WITH VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  76  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF


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