Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 051534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1034 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WE MADE A FEW SHORT TERM CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER SOME AND ADDED FOG THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED.

FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE 12Z KINL
SOUNDING HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES WHICH IS THE HIGHEST
OBSERVED ON THIS DATE...THE PREVIOUS HIGHEST VALUE WAS 1.66
INCHES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND ARE
THINKING WE MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT. NORTHERN ITASCA AND KOOCHICHING COUNTIES HAVE POCKETS OF
LOW 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE TO ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN. IT ALSO EXPECTED THAT WE WILL
SEE SEVERAL STORMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ADDING TO THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...FROM WEST TO EAST...SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE
SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING UP TO 2500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND UP
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE BETTER SHEAR WILL
BE TRAILING BEHIND THE FRONT...SO STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT MIGHT
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH SHEAR TO BECOME WELL ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES...SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINS.

COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT ONLY
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY MIGHT ALSO BE DRY...BUT
THE GEM IS INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS TROUGH AXIS WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MN/WI REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PROVIDING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS.

EVEN COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS MIGHT ONLY BE IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TIMING OF THE STORMS IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING TIMEFRAME TO INCLUDES PERIODS OF VCTS DURING THE EVENING
AT MOST TERMINALS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KBRD FIRST...THEN
OTHER TERMINALS LATER. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.
A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...CAUSING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  65  82  60 /  40  70  60  50
INL  77  64  81  54 /  60  80  60  40
BRD  85  68  84  57 /  40  70  50  30
HYR  85  71  84  60 /  20  40  70  70
ASX  88  68  86  62 /  20  40  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...WL



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